| According to BP World Energy Statistics Yearbook 2018,China's total energy consumption accounted for 23.2% of global energy consumption in 2017.China is still the largest energy consumer in the world,and its dependence on foreign oil has risen to 67.4%,reaching the highest level in history.The International Energy Agency(IEA)said that if China's crude oil demand maintained the current growth,China's oil dependence would reach 80% by 2035.China's high dependence on imports of crude oil posed a huge challenge to China's oil security.China's energy prices are gradually in line with international standards.Domestic crude oil and other fossil energy prices will fluctuate frequently under the influence of international crude oil prices.The rapid rise and frequent fluctuation of crude oil prices have adverse effects on the economy.Because of the scarcity and non-renewability of fossil energy,energy consumption is bound to be constrained by both energy competition and environmental protection when economic development develops to a certain extent.Controlling the total amount of energy consumption such as crude oil and improving the utilization efficiency have become a major issue in China's energy development for quite a long time now and in the future.Industry,as an important sector of the national economy,has an important impact on the speed and level of China's economic development.Industry is the main consumption sector of crude oil in China.This paper comprehensively studies the impact of fluctuations in crude oil prices on China's industrial economy,and studies the influencing factors of crude oil consumption intensity and optimizes the spatial layout of petroleum refining industry to improve the utilization efficiency of crude oil,has a certain significance for actively dealing with crude oil price fluctuations.Firstly,the paper analyses the course of international crude oil price trend and its influencing factors,the current situation of crude oil consumption and the course of reform in China,the correlation between international crude oil price and Chinese crude oil price,makes a detailed analysis of the impact of international crude oil price fluctuation on China's economy,and conducts a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the transmission mechanism of crude oil price fluctuation on China's industrial economy.On this basis,we construct a theoretical model to analyze the impact mechanism of crude oil price on industrial output,ex-factory price of industrial products,interest rate and wage level,and construct a Panel VAR model to study the dynamic impact of crude oil price fluctuation from the whole industry and different industries.On the basis of the above research,the factors affecting crude oil consumption intensity and the optimization of the spatial layout of petroleum refining industry are analyzed from a spatial perspective to improve oil utilization efficiency in order to cope with the fluctuation of crude oil prices and energy environmental constraints.This paper constructs a spatial Durbin panel model(SDM)to empirically study the influencing factors of industrial crude oil consumption intensity in China and its interregional spillover effect,and takes the experience of American petroleum refining industry layout as an example to analyze its reference to China,to measure the spatial agglomeration level of China's petroleum refining industry,and to empirically study the effect of petroleum refining industry agglomeration on industry output.According to the research,the main conclusions are as follows:(?)Through the analysis,it is found that the trend of international crude oil price is highly consistent with that of domestic crude oil and other energy prices,and there is also a high correlation between international crude oil price and China's industrial output and other macroeconomic variables.The empirical test results show that there is a Granger causality between the international crude oil futures price and China's crude oil futures price,and there is a mutual guiding relationship between them.There is a cointegration relationship between international crude oil futures prices and China's crude oil futures prices.Therefore,building a good crude oil futures market and giving full play to the price discovery function of crude oil futures can improve China's pricing power in the international crude oil market and help China deal with the fluctuation of crude oil price.(?)Granger causality test shows that in different stages of the rise and fall of international crude oil prices,there are different mutual guiding relationships between international crude oil prices and China's industrial growth,and the rise and fall of international crude oil prices have different effects on China's industry.The cointegration test shows that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the international crude oil price and China's industrial growth.(?)This paper constructs a mathematical model to analyze the influence mechanism of crude oil price on industrial output,PPI,interest rate and wage level.Through the empirical analysis of panel VAR model,it is found that the rise of crude oil price has a negative impact on industrial output,resulting in the rise of PPI and has a negative impact on the economy.Through the analysis of the related industries with crude oil,it is concluded that the impact effect of crude oil price fluctuation on China's industrial production has a greater impact on the upstream industrial price of crude oil,which can transmit faster,while there is a lag in the price transmission of the related industries of upstream and downstream,and the adjustment process is slow.As for the impact of output,it has a positive driving effect on the output of upstream oil and gas extraction industry,but a negative impact on the total output of related industries in the upstream and downstream,resulting in a decline in output.(?)Through the analysis of Moran's I index,it is concluded that the intensity of industrial crude oil consumption has certain spatial agglomeration characteristics.Yangtze River Delta,Pearl River Delta and Northeast China are the main agglomeration areas.The regions with high crude oil consumption intensity are Xinjiang,Gansu,Liaoning,Shenyang,Heilongjiang,Shanghai,Jiangsu,Zhejiang and Hunan provinces,while the regions with low crude oil consumption intensity are mainly Tibet,Yunnan,Inner Mongolia,Sichuan,Guizhou,Chongqing,Shanxi and Henan provinces.(?)Through the construction of spatial Durbin Mode(SDM)l,the empirical study on the industrial crude oil intensity shows that technological progress is helpful to the reduction of industrial crude oil consumption intensity in the region and its surrounding areas,the upgrading of local industrial structure leads to the reduction of industrial crude oil intensity in the region.The improvement of economic development level and the rise of crude oil price have a certain effect on reducing the industrial crude oil intensity in the local region and adjacent regions.There is spillover effect of influencing factors.The government needs to consider the role of regional coordination in the formulation of relevant policies to reduce the intensity of industrial crude oil more effectively.(?)Based on the E-G index and the concentration degree of five provinces and cities,the agglomeration level of petroleum and natural gas exploitation industry,petroleum processing,coking and nuclear fuel processing industry,chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry and chemical fiber manufacturing industry is calculated.It is found that the agglomeration level of China's petrochemical industry has been improved to a certain extent.Through empirical research,it is found that the improvement of refining and chemical industry agglomeration level can promote the output growth of related industries.Therefore,the utilization efficiency of crude oil can be improved by promoting the integrated development of petroleum refining and chemical industry and optimizing the spatial layout of petroleum refining and chemical industry.Finally,on the basis of the above research,this paper puts forward some policy suggestions,such as improving the crude oil price system,increasing R & D investment to promote technological innovation,optimizing the industrial structure,promoting energy diversification to enhance security,enhancing inter regional policy coordination and optimizing the spatial distribution of petroleum refining and chemical industry,and accelerating the distribution of overseas markets.It is hoped that this study can provide useful quantitative decision-making basis and measures for China to cope with the fluctuation of crude oil prices under the dual constraints of energy and environment,and can provide some theoretical value and practical reference for the reform of product oil market and policy formulation. |
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