Research On Comprehensive Carrying Capacity And Economic Development In China Island County

Island has played a unique status and role in sustainable use and protection of marine resources,and the island development and construction has become an important economic “growth pole”.Island counties account for more than 98% of the total land areas,which is the main gathering place for residents and it is the key part of island resources.The resource and environment system of island countries is fragile and the overall foundation is relatively weak,therefore,how to realize their fully sustainable development has become a critical work for country’s sea strategy.The paper puts 12 island counties as samples,it analyzes the sustainable development on the basis of combination of comprehensive carrying capacity and economic development by using the sustainable theory as core,and using comprehensive carrying capacity theory and regional economic theory as support.Based on the quantitative evaluation of the comprehensive carrying capacity indexes and the economic development indexes,it analyzes the coupling relationship and interaction and puts forward the suggestions to enhance the further level of island sustainable development.The paper studies the natural resources,ecological environment and infrastructure of comprehensive carrying capacity system and it also studies the whole economic system status,leading industry development and economic diffusion effect of the economic development system by applying the data of 2014.The results show that the comprehensive carrying capacity and economic development have the larger horizontal contrast gap,which indicates that the current levels of sustainable development in all counties are different.In order to accurately determine the level of sustainable development in all island counties,the paper selects six system layer indicators and 35 elements layer indicators to construct the comprehensive carrying capacity index and economic development index evaluation system.Based on the results,it uses the AHP method to determine the weight of each index,standardizes the related index data of each island country from 2008 to 2014,and it gets the final score of the evaluation system during the sample period.The index scores at all levels comprise the empirical analysis basic of the paper.Firstly,according to the characteristics of the two-dimensional coordinates composed by comprehensive carrying capacity index and economic development index of each island county,it divides the island countries into four types,namely centrally centralized,horizontally evolved,vertically evolved and 45°ascending.Secondly,it quantitatively analyzes the coupling of comprehensive carrying capacity index and economic development index of each island county by coordinated development model.It has found that the overall coupling of island countries is at the intermediate coordination level and the four types of island counties have their respective characteristics of coordination,comprehensive development and coupling changing trends.Thirdly,using the panel data of all island counties for each index during the sample period,it constructs the regression analysis model to study the interaction relationship between the comprehensive carrying capacity and economic development.Based on the data analysis and model testing,it constructs two variable-coefficients model to study the influences of the comprehensive carrying capacity and economic development affected by their each system layer indexes respectively.Finally,it makes a comprehensive analysis of each influence coefficient of four types.The result of comprehensive carrying capacity and economic development shows that the effect of the type of centrally centralized is not steady,the effect of the type of horizontally evolved and vertically evolved is a positive and negative,while the effect of the type of 45°ascending is mutual and positive.According to the analysis of comprehensive carrying capacity and economic development,it expects the coupling development trend of each type.On the whole,according to each hierarchy index of changing characteristics,coordination,comprehensive development,coupling and interaction of the four types,the type of 45°ascending achieves the optimal state of sustainable development,the type of horizontally evolved and vertically evolved achieve the sub-optimal state,and the type of centrally centralized is in the unsteady state.According to the evaluation hierarchy,the paper puts forward some countermeasures to promote the coordination of comprehensive carrying capacity and economic development of all and four types island counties.