The Research Of Quantitative Model And Method On Pressure Pipeline's Individual Risk Based On Scenario Analysis

Pressure pipelines transport flammable, explosive, toxic, corrosive medium, which have high potential risk, and the pipelines' safety has gradually been an important component of national public safety.Individual risk considers public safety and work safety as a whole, which is a new perspective in this paper. At the same time, the individual risk of the research is not only the key to understanding the mechanism of the pipeline's accident, and also is the basic foundation of effective disaster prevention and reduction.The scenario analysis of individual risk for pressure pipeline is the comprehensive evaluation of work safety and public safety, and is the organic connection of risk main body and risk suffer,and also is the integrated result of monomer risk assessment and regional risk assessment, so the individual risk has a very important significance. In this paper, there are six main research results:1) The definition of pressure pipeline's individual risk is given, the characteristics of pressure pipeline's individual risk is studied,and they lay a foundation of the choice for individual risk assessment method and the determination of acceptable standards for pressure pipeline.2) The advantages and characteristics of scenario analysis adopted in this paper are expounded, and the suitable scenario analysis method for individual risk of pressure pipeline is put forward, the analysis model for pressure pipeline's individual risk is determined,which includes three models:scenario element identification model, scenario inference model and the individual risk quantitative evaluation model.3) The typical accident cases of pressure pipeline are first analyzed by using scenario element identification model, the characteristics, causes and consequences of pressure pipeline are clarified, the individual risk formation mechanism of pressure pipeline is studied. Through PSR "pressure-state-response" model, scenario elements of risk main body are identified, and through "sensitivity-exposure-response capacity" model, scenario elements of risk suffer are identified, and the meaning of each element is explained.4) The cusp catastrophe potential function structure model of pressure pipeline's individual risk is set up, its evolution mechanism is analyzed, and the scenario combination table is also obtained.5) According to the mutability of individual risk of pressure pipeline, catastrophe progression method is introduced, and considering the pressure pipeline risk main body and risk suffer, the factor analysis method is used to optimal screen the key elements, and the elements are dimensionless processed, the control variables are normalized processed, on the basis of these, pressure pipeline's individual risk quantitative evaluation model based on catastrophe progression method is established, and individual risk acceptable criteria of pressure pipeline are studied.6) China's 2005-2011 basic data of pressure pipeline individual risk is selected to verify the accuracy and scientificity of catastrophe model. The empirical analysis of Beijing-Tianjin Pipeline in China National Aviation Fuel is carried out, comprehensive individual risk is given, and acceptable criteria and control measures are also acquired.