| The progress of cleaning technology is the sole way of resolving the contradictions between environmental pollution and economic development. Only on the basis of the innovation of cleaning technology can we transfer the economic development model, improve the industrial structure and energy structure, and decrease pollution emission to achieve the government's environmental objectives. Cleaning technology cannot progress fast without the stimulation of the government's initiatives, therefore, the evaluation of Chinese current environmental policy is of vital importance in promoting the progress effect of cleaning technology. This essay launches theoretical and empirical research on the endogenous mechanism of Chinese environmental technology progress and the effect of policy stimulation, and reaches the following conclusions:Firstly, through the construction of the general equilibrium model that consists of both the clean sector and dirty sector, this essay discusses the endogenous mechanism of direction of environmental technology under the close economic environment and finds out that in the long run, the progress direction of technology is influenced by current technical level, that is, technology progresses faster in the sector where the technical level is high, while technology progresses slower in the sector where the technical level is low, and therefore the government's environmental policy is required to promote the progress of clean technology. Meanwhile, the ad valorem duties for polluted products and subsidies for research and development of clean products will also stimulate the progress effect of cleaning technology. The study also finds that in the model when under the open economic environment, by exerting effects on the comparative prices of the products from the two sectors, the international goods trade strengthens the comparative advantages of developing countries in dirty products and therefore has negative effects on the progress of clean technology. Since developing countries can also improve their production technology level by technology introduction and imitation, there is no essential distinction between technology introduction and imitation, found by the study.Secondly, under the condition of free market, the stability of labor force structure and technical progress rate in both cleaning and non-cleaning sectors are affected by the contribution rate of R & D of the scientists from the two sectors and the substitution elasticity. To be specific, when the pollution emission from the non-cleaning sector reaches the upper limit of environmental bearing capacity and when the two sectors present a substitution relationship and the contribution rate of the scientists is higher, the requirement for scientists in the clean sector will increase with the growth of technical level; when the two sectors present a substitution relationship and the contribution rate of the scientists is higher, the number of scientists will gradually decrease and the progress rate of cleaning technology becomes lower; when the two sectors present a complementary relationship, cleaning technology stops progressing. When the two sectors present a substitution relationship, the economic equilibrium is unstable, however, the impact from the environmental subsidy policy enables the economy to develop in the direction of cleaning technology; when the contribution rate of the scientists is higher, the interference of short-term policy will be enough to realize the fast development of cleaning technology. When the two sectors present a complementary relationship, the economic development becomes balanced and steady, and the interference of long-term policy is needed to realize the progress of cleaning technology. The scale of the scientists in the cleaning sector is the key factor that decides the progress speed of cleaning technology, and governments are able to stimulate the fast development of cleaning technology through enlarging the number of scientists in the cleaning sector. Subsidizing the scientists of the cleaning sector in salary to attract the scientists from the non-cleaning sector to shift their research focus, and subsidizing young men educationally to attract them to the cleaning sector, these two policies could quickly enlarge the scale of the scientists in the cleaning sector and promote the long-term fast development of cleaning technology.Thirdly, this essay carries out an empirical analysis on the panel data of the manufacturing industry in China and finds that international trade, environmental regulation, domestic market revenue and ownership structures have directed effect on the progress of the environmental technology. To be specific, export has positive effects on both cleaning and non-cleaning technology and favors the non-cleaning technology direction. Import favors the cleaning technology by having conspicuous effects on the progress of it, but has negative effects on the progress of non-cleaning technology, because the imported cleaning products are complementary to domestic cleaning products, while the imported and exported non-cleaning products are substituted. Environmental regulation has positive effects on both technologies, with the effects on non-cleaning technology being highly elastic and obvious, and the effects on cleaning technology being not so obvious. Environment regulation stimulates the progress of cleaning technology, but has stronger positive effects on non-cleaning technology. That's because, according to the analysis in the essay, in China, the environmental policy is mainly administrative orders, the environment supervision is incomplete and the law enforcement is not strict. Domestic market revenue can push the progress of both cleaning and non-cleaning technology, but favors and has stronger positive effects on the latter, which indicates that the economic environment policy is the best solution in promoting the progress of cleaning technology. The composition ratio of the state owned economy has negative relations with the progress of both cleaning and non-cleaning technology; the composition of foreign capital has positive relations with the progress of cleaning technology and negative relations with the progress of non-cleaning technology; the introduction of more foreign advanced cleaning technology is an important way of improving our domestic cleaning technology.Fourthly, through the dummy variable method, the author examines the change of progress rate of cleaning technology after the environmental protection law was issued, and finds that after the law took effect, the progress rate of cleaning technology on a whole increases by approximately 1%. The author also estimated the net effect of the Chinese environmental protection on the progress of cleaning technology by the fold difference method and found that in statistics, the Chinese environmental protection law didn't affect strikingly the progress of cleaning technology, i. e. the gap between the progress rates of the cleaning technology and non-cleaning technology wasn't obviously changed on the issue of the law. This essay also checks the implementation effect of the environmental protection law under different lag period conditions and the feedback shows that the stimulation effect of the Chinese environmental protection law on the progress of cleaning technology is not shown as time passes. This essay further checks the marginal effect of Chinese environmental protection law on each year, and found that the progress rate of Chinese cleaning technology didn't change a lot because of that.Fifthly, according to the panel data of the invention patent in both cleaning and non-cleaning technology in the motor industry, this essay examines the effect of the oil prices on these two kinds of technology and calculates the degree of path dependent effect. The researching results show that the technical reserves of a manufacturer takes a leading role in pushing the technological progress in the same area in the future and reveals obvious path dependent effects. Domestically speaking, the technological progress in one motor manufacturer is also affected by the technical reserves of other motor manufacturers, while the stock of foreign non-cleaning technology has only weak effects on the patents in non-cleaning technology in Chinese enterprises. The level of income has positive effects on both cleaning and non-cleaning technologies, but not that obvious. The increase of oil price has positive effects on the progress of cleaning technology in motor manufacturers, and negative effects on that of non-cleaning technology and this tendency becomes obvious as time flies. Therefore, the government could change the direction of technological progress in the motor industry by increasing the oil price through tax, promote the progress of cleaning technology, and decrease the emission of greenhouse gases. |
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