Mechanism Analysis Of Society Security Risks Caused By Major Environmental Sensitive Projects And Research On Quantitative Models

Major constructing projects are indispensable to current economic development and social construction of our country and are the basic guarantee of consistent economic development and construction of hominy society as well.In recent years,many environmental mas disturbances caused by environmental sensitive projects break out in many places which seriously restrict the construction of our hominy society,become major resources of risks of social stability and substantial factors of impact social order,finally challenge our public safety and management of government.The existing stability assessment system focus on technology and environmental risks,ignoring the assessment and analysis of the mass' s sense of risks,which is the important resource of social security risks caused by major environmental sensible projects.Therefore,this paper analyzes the evolving mechanism of social security risks caused by major environmental sensible projects and the quantitative models from the perspective of mass risk sensibility,improve the existing mode and ways of risk assessment,raise the control concept based on risks,and probe into the social security control mode of major environmental sensible projects based on the risk ranking,expecting to provide new idea,method and approach for the control and management of major environmental sensible project risks.The main research findings of this paper are as follow:1)Raising the concept of social security risks caused by major environmental sensible projects;Analyzing its connotation and characteristics;Establishing the foundation for determining the mechanism analysis and assessment method of social stable risks caused by major environmental sensible projects.2)Studying the twenty typical cases of environmental mass disturbance caused by major environmental sensible projects;summarizing the basic characteristics of environmental mass disturbance of risk type;analyzing the basic reasons that major environmental sensible projects cause environmental mass disturbance with the “4M” theory;finding out 13 factors that affect the occurrence of environmental mass disturbance of risk type,and identifying carefully every factor;building the model of M influential factor structure and clearing the structural relationship of every major factors in the stable risk system of major environmental sensible projects.3)Analyzing the common mechanism of major project's social security risk and the mutation mechanism of major environmental sensible project's social stable risk;dissecting the moving,developing and evolving laws of the related parts of government,mass and project operator and impact of different aspectsin the process of major project's construction based on the three phrases of producing mechanism,development and evolvement of social stable risk;constructing the common mechanism system of social stable risk caused by major projects;depicting the mutation path from major sensible projects 'environmental risk to the occurrence of mass event of risk type from the two aspects of public risk sensible difference and inefficiency of government management;constructing mutation path model of security risk of major environmental sensible project.4)Introducing mutation theory and the feasibility of social security risk analysis applying for major environmental projects,therefore,based on the principia mathematic of mutation theory,constructing its potential function model,and making scenario analysis its evolving mode;sorting out its scenic combination table and taking the copper project incident in Shifang I,Sichuan to analyze the sharp point mutation model.5)according to the mutation features of environmental sensible project's social security risk,mutation series is introduced.With comprehensive regard to public risk sensible factors of major environmental sensible project,factors of government behavior management,inherent risk factor of project and social environmental system,optimizing the key factors with method of factor analysis,and getting its mutation evaluation model.With statistics collected and related research findings,constructing assessment index system fit for mutation series,therefore building the mathematical model of social stability risk,and studying the acceptance criterion,raising the controlling concept(RBS/M)and discussing its managing mode.6)Choosing the nuclear power station in NanYang as the research object,using the mode to assess the comprehensive quantitative model and obtaining the comprehensive assessment outcome,analyzing the outcome of grade and practical research feeling;setting the acceptance criterion of social security risk,and putting forward related suggestion of social security and stable risk management and countermeasures according to assessment result.