Assessment Methods Of Energy Conservation And Emissions Reduction Policy And Their Applications

Climate change has become a global hot issue.China is the world’s largest country for energy consumption and carbon emissions,bearing enormous pressure to reduce emissions.Thus,China issued a series of targets of energy conservation and emissions reduction.To achieve theres goals,corresponding energy convervation and emissions reduction policies and measures from the national level to the sub-national and industrial levels have been taken.However,how these policies work needs to be evaluated comprehensively.In the context of climate change,through the assessment of energy conservation and emission reduction policies,on the one hand,it can make the future work direction more clear,thus benefiting the achievement of different goals of energy conservation and emission reduction;on the other hand,it is of importance for improving the policy making system and the policy effectiveness.Therefore,assessment of energy conservation and emissions reduction policy from the perspective of climate change is of theoretical and practical significance.This dissertation conducts comprehensive modelling research on assessment of energy conservation and emissions reduction policy,towards the national stragetic needs of addressing climate change and policy modelling.The theory and method of statistics,questionnaire survey,econometrics,operations research,scenario analysis,psychology and sociology are applied.Specifically,a few innovative works are made as follows:（1）Carbon emission evolutions in urban and rural residential sector are investigated during 1996-2012 from an end-use perspective and public attitude to climate change are studied,combining the statistic data and micro and macro survey data.The key findings are:the carbon emissions in residential sector kept increasing periodically;there was a gap between urban and rural carbon emission intensities,but the gap is narrowing;in urban areas,carbon emissions from private transportations grew the fastest and it still has great growth potential in the medium and short term;carbon emissions from space heating and cooling and cookingand water heating accounted for the largest,the growth rates of which were also fast,therefore controls to maintain high standards for degree of comfort are needed;in rural areas,carbon emissions from private transportations also grew fast,even higher than that of urban residents,carbon emissions from space heating and cooling accounted for the largest proportion,but had a slow growth rate.（2）Assessment of national energy conservation and emissions reduction policy.This dissertation developes an optimization model with the cost minimization of the power generation system as the objective function,considering the power demand in various regions,installed capacity of different kinds of power generation technologies,regional power transmission capacity constraints.The optimization model is applied to the power grid of East China.The model results show that:in the current energy price system,the introduction of the carbon price can not fundamentally improve the essence of the high cost of natural gas generation.Considering the government subsidy policy for natural gas power generation,when the carbon price reaches 40 yuan/ton,part of low-efficient coal-fired power plants will be replaced by gas-fired power plants.（3）Assessment of industrial energy conservation and emissions reduction policy.According to China’s energy efficiency standards,this paper investigates the electricity savings and CO₂ emission reductions from RACs over the period of 2005-2025.The results indicate that the rural RAC market which develops more slowly than the urban one still has great potential.In 2025,the total electricity consumption of RACs is projected to be598-674TWh,while the amount without energy efficiency standards is 753TWh.From2005 to 2025,the energy efficiency standards for RACs can save 1430-2540TWh electricity and reduce 908.3-1610.1 Mt CO₂ emissions in different scenarios.Finally,we suggest that the standards should be revised every 4 or 5 years with higher revision pace of8%to 10%.（4）Assessment of regional energy conservation and emissions reduction policy.The energy consumption and CO₂ emissions of Beijing over 2005-2011 is calculated.Furthermore,based on a series of energy conservation planning program issued in Beijing,the LEAP-BJ model is developed to study the energy consumption and CO₂ emissions of Beijing’s six end-use sectors including the residential sector.Some results are found in this research:during 2005-2011,the energy consumption kept increasing,while the total CO₂emissions fluctuated obviously in 2008 and 2011;the POL scenario is projected to save21.36%and 35.37%of the total energy consumption and CO₂ emissions than the BAU scenario during 2012 and 2030;the commerce and service sector will become the largest contributor to energy consumption;the energy conversion sector is the biggest contributor to CO₂ emissions in both of the two scenarios;the population,the GDP growth rate and the industrial structure have great influence on the urban energy consumption and carbon emissions.