Regional Energy System Optimization And Management Research Based On The Adjustment Of Supply And Demand

Continuous supply of energy is the support and guarantee for the development of regional social economy.Under the influence of many factors such as imbalance between energy supply and demand,abnormality of industrial structure,worsening environmental pollution and excess capacity of new energy,how to relieve the contradiction between economic development and environmental protection,optimize the regional energy supply and consumption structure,and achieve the sustainable development ultimately,is a difficult problem confronting regional decision-makers.As the top priority of energy management,energy system planning is related to the development and production distribution of energy industry,and concerned with whether social economy could realize the low-carbon and sustainable development.Therefore,how to conduct energy system planning scientifically to acquire effective planning and management schemes brings severe challenge to the decision-makers.Moreover,Chinese government has vowed to cut 40-45% of the carbon intensity per unit of GDP by 2020 compared with the 2005 level.In order to achieve this goal and promote the development of China's low-carbon economy,the National Development and Reform Commission of China(NDRCC)has launched a national low-carbon province and low-carbon city experimental project.Consequently,predicting the amount and occurrence time of regional carbon discharges peak value accurately may contribute to grasping the currentt situation and development trend of regional greenhouse gas emissions.It is also the important basis of seeking a low-carbon development path,and the main driving force of optimizing the energy structure.However,regional energy system is a complex giant system which involves a broad content.Its carbon emissions prediction is usually affected by a variety of driving factors such as population gross,economic growth rate,technical progress and industry structure change.In addition,its planning and management is generally influenced by various complex process(e.g.import and export,production,conversion,transportation,storage and consumption of energy)and factors(e.g.availability amount of energy resources,energy price,processing and conversion efficiency,government's policy guide,industrial structure and energy structure).Combined with the interaction between energy system and external systems,as well as the internal interaction among numerous subsystems,regional energy system is filled with multiple complexities and uncertainties.Whereas,restricted by the immature and imperfect statistical system and the actual situation of energy system in China,energy,environment and economic datum are usually absent in different degrees,leading to the traditional prediction model,planning model and single optimization method has certain shortage and limitation in dealing with practical problems.Thus,it's urgent to extend the existing prediction model and couple various optimization methods to realize the scientific management of regional energy system.Based on the new circumstances of regional energy supply and demand,identification of complexities and uncertainties in multiple-scale energy systems,extension of the existing prediction model and couple of various optimization methods,this study established a regional carbon discharges peak value prediction model and multiple-scale energy system optimization models,providing the theoretical reference and technical support for regional low-carbon development and energy structure optimization and adjustment.The main research contents are as follows:(1)based on multistage stochastic inexact chance-constraint programming(MSICCP)method,an integrated biomass-municipal solid waste power supply model was constructed to help decision-makers identify the optimal power supply strategy under uncertainty,and offer effective decision support to the management of biomass-municipal solid waste power plant,(2)based on inexact fixed-mix fuzzy-stochastic programming(IFFSP)method,a wind power heating system heat supply management and planning model was established to assist decision-makers to identify the optimal heat supply strategy under uncertainty,and further investigate the feasibility of wind power heating projects in promoting wind power consumption and relieving wind curtailment,(3)based on an extended STIRPAT model,Qingdao carbon discharges peak value prediction model was built to obtain the corresponding amount as well as occurrence time of carbon discharges peak values under multiple scenarios,thereby providing theoretical basis for the establishment of carbon discharges peak value management framework in Qingdao,(4)based on the prediction results of carbon discharges peak value and inexact multistage stochastic mixed-integer programming(IMSMP)method,Qingdao energy system optimization model was constructed to help decision-makers gain cost-effective energy system management schemes under uncertainty,and offer decision reference to energy system mid-long term planning in Qingdao.The results could provide certain reference for exploring the solutions of practical problems such as joint power supply of multiple renewable energy influenced by energy substitution,wind power heating under the background of promoting wind power consumption,regional energy structure optimization and adjustment constrained by carbon discharges peak value.