Research On Regional Energy System Optimization And Interaction Analysis Among The Related Factors Under Uncertainty

There would be mang huge challenges for related managers which are energy-related conflicts,regional energy system planning,and energy consumption structure optimization under the impacts of environment pollution,imbalance of industrial structure,excess production capacity.extreme climate change and abandon of wind and photovoltaic power generation.However,the wide range of temporal and spatial scale,many related factors.the interaction among subsystems such as society,economy,industry,environment,etc,of factors,and mismatch between existing technical approaches and management tools cause uncertainty characteristics aggravation of energy system on the space-time scale.Then,difficulties in prediction,simulation and optimization of energy system and the irrationality of planning management would be worse because of the immature energy related data collection technique and imperfect statistics system in China.Therefore,Studies of regional energy system optimization and interaction analysis among the related factors under uncertainty,construct the uncertainty optimization technology system of energy system,developing energy system optimization model based on interaction and coupling of various elements,and exploring the interaction characteristics among the various elements of the energy system are great important theoretical meaning to guide the optimization management of regional energy system.Studies of regional energy and their associated systems,renewable energy development,potential of wind power were carried out with the present situation of energy system in Urumqi in northwest China based on the systematically summarized the researches related to energy planning methodology,energy system model,uncertainty optimization,related elements like renewable energy policy,pressure of environmental emission reduction,and climate change.In detail,the main research contents are as follows:(1)The multivariate copula downscaling approach(MvCD)is investigated to downscale CMIP5 GCMs with wind speed of wind farm in Urumqi,China.High dimensional multivariate copula is used to generate future wind speed pattern based on projects from multple GCMs.Wind speed with four future climate scenarios base on GCMs and MvCD would be obtained to reveal the regional characteristic and periodicity of wind speed in Urumqi.Then,the impacts of climate change to wind power generation would be systematically evaluated.(2)Considering uncertain conditions,an energy-traffic coupling management bi-level programming model was built,and a case study for Urumqi were used to analyze the energy system,traffic subsystem,and their influences for regional atmospheric environmental quality of city under different period quantitatively.(3)Base on incorporation of fuzzy-random parameters programming,the structural adjustment optimization model for electric-power system management is developed for Urumqi power system under fuzzy-random environment.Optimization schemes accorded with the characteristics of Urumqi power system was obtained.Then,the impacts of different levels of the pollution control and promotion of renewable energy were analysed for the Urumuqi power system.The results provide decision support for power system development of Urumqi.(4)Based on the incorporation of two stage stochastic programming,fuzzy-random programming,and stochastic robust method,the planning model for Urumqi's electric power planning by power demand targets was formulated with taking the minimum total system cost as objective function,and regional power supply,power grid trading,atmospheric pollutants emission as constraints.this study systematically analysis optimized allocation of regional distributed generation to support clean power advancingand future energy development of Urumqi.In general,based on the regional characteristics of Urumqi's energy system,this study constructed several reasonable optimization models that can support regional sustainable development.Adjustment of regional energy structure,new energy consumption,optimized energy configuration,and new energy development program would be obtained.Coupled analysis of interactive effects of energy system adjustment to regional traffic programming mode,emission reduction,cross-regional power trading would also be obtained to achieve sustainable development of regional energy systems.