Research On Driver's Route Choie Mechanism In VMS And Informtion Release Stratery

The inner mechanism of the traffic flow in the transportation system is the result of driver's route choice behavior. With the influence of traffic information,the driver's route choice behavior is a complicated process of learning and decision-making. The individual decision-making behavior of the driver is significantly affected by the traffic information. Therefore, it is one of the key contents of traffic guidance system to study the effect of traffic information on driver's cognitive process and decision-making behavior, which has an important theoretical meaning and application value.On the basis of existing research results, this paper analyzes the driver's cognitive characteristics of variable message signs (VMS) information in the frame of cognitive psychology, and studies the driver's decision-making characteristics combing with the survey and statistical method. Driver's cognitive updating process about the real-time traffic status of route is studied. A route choice model considering the cognitive updating is constructed from the perspective of bounder rationality, and the influence of VMS on driver's rout choice behavior is discussed by adjusting the VMS information release strategy of the model.The evolution process of the traffic flow equilibrium state in dynamic the route choice system with the influence of VMS is also analyzed in this paper. A bi-level programming model of VMS information dissemination strategy is proposed, which coordinates the decision-making target difference between the manager and driver. The algorithm of the model is designed and verified to be effective.The research on driver's route choice mechanism in VMS and information release strategy includes the following key techniques:(1) Analysis of driver's cognitive and decision-making characteristic under the influence of VMS.The SOAR pattern of cognitive psychology is introduced to analyze the driver's cognitive process, and the cognitive structural model is constructed to reflect the driver's attention, perception, memory, reasoning and other functional characteristics. A SP survey is designed and conducted to collect the driver's route choice data, and the ordinal logistic model is established to quantitatively analyze the effects of the driver's personal economic attributes, travel attributes and VMS attributes on route choice decision-making characteristics.(2) The real-time route choice modeling. On the basis of expounding the reasons that cause the uncertainty of the traffic system, a Bayesian network model of driver's real-time cognitive updating is established. The Bayesian network model takes VMS information and driver's experience into account to reflect driver's updating behavior of route traffic state at each decision node in the transportation network.The driver's route choice behavior rules are discussed in the framework of bounded rationality, and a route choice model which embeds real-time cognitive updating with cumulative prospect theory is constructed.In this route choice model,driver's risk preference characteristics and subjective cognitive factor are taken into consideration and the influences of these factors on route choice are discussed. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model.(3) Dynamic evolution analysis of route choice behavior under the influence of VMS. The traffic flow in the transportation system is regarded as the result of the game behavior among the derivers. Based on the idea, the game pay-off matrix of route choice considering the influence of VMS is constructed, and the evolution process of route choice behavior is studied by establishing the replication dynamic equation of the dynamic system. The dynamic convergence process of the traffic system equilibrium under VMS is analyzed. The competitive relationship and the antagonistic cooperative relationship between drivers and system manager are revealed by adjusting the released strategy of VMs information, and the inherent dynamic mechanism of driver's route choice behavior is also revealed.(4) Research on VMS information release strategy. Drawing on the stackelberg game coordination theory,a bi-level programming model of VMS information release strategy is constructed. The upper programming problem is form the perspective of the transportation system manager. The optimal target is to minimizing the total travel time of system and the total cost of VMS construction and operation. The lower programming problem is form the perspective of the driver, who chooses the route according to the VMS information and the historical travel experience. The optimal target of the driver is to minimizing the travel cost. The optimal solution of the bi-level programming model is the optimal VMS information release strategy. A VMS information release strategy with high traffic volume, median traffic volume and low traffic volume is developed respectively, which provides an effective peroration and management method of transportation network.