Research On Public Transit Choice Behavior And Evolution With Bounded Rationality

The advantages of urban public transport are traffic jam,convenience improvement of residents' travel and environment pollution.Therefore,our country has established a strategy that public transport have the priority to developed itself among urban traffic programme.At present,major cities are actively constructing an integrated public transportation system that is dominated by urban rail transit and supplemented by Normal Bus Transit.In the case of the coexistence of two modes of public transport,how to allocate public transport resources and solve the problem of urban traffic congestion in a more environmental and economic situation will become the focus of our research.The allocation of public transport resources is mainly influenced by the choice of urban residents.So,it is necessary to study the choice of residents' travel mode.Considering that humanity has the character of limited rationality,this article based on the framework of bounded rationality,prospect theory and evolutionary game theory,conducts in-depth research on resident's public transport travel mode selection behavior.The main work is followed by 2 points.(1)First,we determined four factors that will affect the choice of residents' public transportation among a lot if analysis,which is travel time,travel cost,and comfort,convenience.Based on the prospect theory,a decision model for the selection of public transport travel modes was established to analyze the behavior of public transport modes of travel when residents under different reference points.(2)In order to establish a decision model for the selection of public transport travel modes,we combined the prospect theory with the evolutionary game theory.The comprehensive prospect value is regarded as the payoff function of evolutionary game model,and the traveler was classified by value of time.Based on this,the evolutionary game matrix was established.The evolutionary analysis is conducted by replicated dynamic equation to obtain the stability strategy and evolution process of both sides of the game.At the same time,it analyzes the sensitivity of the residents to the fare when choosing their travel mode.The model not only takes the limited rationality of the travelers into account,but also reflects the mutual influence of the tactics choice among the travelers.This paper uses the concept of bounded rationality and foreground theory to study the choice of public transport travel behavior of residents under the uncertainty of traffic environment,which make the research results more in line with the actual situation.The foreground theory and evolutionary game theory are applied to the analysis of travel mode selection behavior.From the game point of view,this paper analyzes the behavior of residents' choice of travel mode and provides reliable theoretical support for the managers of public transportation.