Lane-changing Behavior Analysis,and Modeling Of Lane-changing In Work Zones On Freeways

Vehicles have to complete the lane change before the merge point because of lane cloure in the section of freeways maintenance area.The extemely complex traffic conditions on work zone and its influnce area may force traffic vehicles make lane-changing frequently,which will easily lead to disorder traffic flow and work zone capacity drops further,meanwhile traffic accidents might be caused by frequent lane-changing behaviors espacially improper behaviors.It is difficult to capture and obtain the characteristics of the vehicle lane-changing behavior in the maintenance area,and modelling lane-changing behavior will be very difficult.With the improvement of the level of automatic driving vehicles,AVs’ application in roads,self-driving,even without human beings supervision,deeply rely on more accurate understanding and in-depth basic theoretical research of the actual road traffic lane-changing behavoir.Based on comprehensive summary of existing researches,vehciles lane-changing behaviors in maintenance work zones on freeways were analyzed and modeled.The nonparametric estimation method of survival analysis was used to establish a duration model of vehicle mandatory lane-changing(MLC)based on individual vehicle behavior on work zone on freeways.The MLC duration distribution was studied.The influence of vehicles lane-changing behavior on macroscopic traffic flow were analyzed.Second,a Cox proportional hazard model for vehicles lane-changing on the work zone on freeways was put forward.This model was estimated using the semi-parametric estimation method of survival analysis.The influence of each covariate on vehicles lane changing behavior is quantitatively analyzed.Finally,a lane-changing model,which amis to simulate the vehcile lane-changing behavior on freeway work zone,was put forward by improving the Schakel’s LMRS model.The anticipation of non-equilibrium phenomenon is taken into considaration in the proposed model.Specifically,the contents of this dissertation are as follows,(1)Road,traffic and safety characteristics of the maintenance work zone on freeways were analyzed summarized,and literatures about the state-of-art car-following model and lane-changing model and the survival analysis were comprehensively are reviewed.The adaptability of survival analysis in the research of vehicles lane-changing behavior on freeway work zones were discussed.Focuses has been put on the classification of the lane-changing model,their theoretical comparisons and the limitations of existing models,and then addressing challenges for the further modeling.The method of survival analysis was described in terms of the characteristics of lane-changing duration and the censored data.(2)Lane-changing behavior of vehciles traveled through the maintenance work zone on freeways was analyzed by the empirical research.The trajactories data were collected,processed and analyzd.The classic work zone was chosen to conduct the investigate.The UAV-based traffic data acquisition method was designed to collect naturalistic driving data.The acquired basic video data were then imported into Simi Motion with the initial data as products.Then data cleaning processes were conducted to deal with the initial data,and the velocity,acceleration and position(both horizontal and vertical)with time-vary were extracted from the trajectory data of the whole path lane-changing process.Based on these work,the micro-fluctuation stability and non-equilibrium phenomenon during vehicles lane-changing were analyzed.(3)A duration model of vehicle mandatory lane-changing(MLC)was established based on individual vehicle behavior on work zone on freeways,and the MLC duration distribution was studied.First,the duration model of vehicle MLC on work zone on freeways was built.Second,the product-limit estimator and life table,which are nonparametric estimation method of survival analysis,were used to estimate the proposed model.Finally,the nonparametric test was used to quantify the difference in the duration of vehicles lane-changing under different influencing factors.(4)The Cox proportional hazard model for vehicles lane-changing on the work zone on freeways was put forward,and the influence of the macroscopic factors such as vehicle type,traffic characteristics and environmental characteristics on vehicle lane changing behavior was analyzed.Firstly,the Cox proportional hazards model is constructed,then the model is improved to solve the non-proportional and the time-dependent variable problems.Secondly,the appropriate correlation type of statistics were chosen according to the covariate variables’ type,and the correlations of covariate variables were obtained and then analysed.Thirdly,this proposed model was estimated using the semi-parametric estimation method of survival analysis.The hazard function was obtained,which can indicate the risk of one vehicle lane-changing prosess completion.The influence of each covariate,such as vehicle type,the velocity of objective vehicle,traffic period,the distance from the initial lane-changing point to the merge point,the front and lag headway to the vehicles on the objective lane,on vehicles lane changing behavior was quantitatively analyzed.(5)The lane-changing model was put forward,which amis to simulate the vehcile lane-changing behavior on freeway work zone.After taken full considaration of lane-changing desires incentives and the lane-changing detail processing which had been analyzed above,the model was proposed on the basis of the whole desires of lane-changing which include speed incentive and route incentive.The warning sign in the warning area would give drivers pre-warning.This dissertation took its influence into account and the anticipation as a probability,and intergrated the anticipation into the Schakel’s LMRS model.The LMARS model was proposed,and the model was calibrated and verified by the measured traffic flow data.