Research On Individual Customer Residual Lifetime Measurement Model And Application

With the rapid development of information technology, the competitive environment and competitive strategies of enterprises have undergone a fundamental change. Corporate strategy has been from product-centric or service-centric into a customer-centric. Customer acquisition and retention is a key factor in the survival and development of enterprises. In order to maintain a good relationship with customers, the enterprise provide customers with personalized service programs and services recommended. These need to pay the high cost of service. However, enterprises' resources are limited. The enterprise can not provide personalized and high-quality service for all customers. Companies need to classify customers effectively based on the customer's value, and focus their limited resources on high-quality customers. By this way, companies will get profits from the service and improve their business competitiveness. In this process, the customer's value is the basis and key for customer classification. Meanwhile, How to measure the individual customer's residual lifetime is the important and difficult point in the process of customer's value measurement. It has a critical impact of the measurement of customer's value.This dissertation use a variety of theorys and methos, including customer lifecycle, dynamic customer relationship management, customer behavior analysis, evidential reasonning and markov chain, to analysis the key issues in the customer value measuring systematically, such as identifing customer life cycle stages, the customers' status conversion process of each life cycle phases and customer's remaining lifecycle. The method to measure the the residual lifetime of individual customers is proposed. Based on the method, individual customer's value is measured, combined with the customer life cycle stages and the probability of customers' status conversion. At last, the customer management strategies have been proposed from the views of the cutomer current value, the customer potential value and custome life cycle. the study are summarized as follows:(1)In this dissertation, identifying indicators and methods of individual customer's life cycle stages are proposed. the characteristics of the customers at each stage of the customer life cycle has been analyzed. Indicators which are used to identifing the various stages of the customer life cycle have been proposed. The objective weight of each indicator is calculated by attribute importance calculation method in rough set theory. Combining the subjective weight from experts, the comprehensive weight can be determined. Based on these indicators as evidence, the stage of customer life cycle is recognized by evidential reasoning algorithm.(2)The calculation method which is used to calculating customers average residual lifetime of various stage of lifecycle is proposed in this dissertation. Based on customer lifecycle theory, the customer conversion process of various stages of the life cycle status is anlyzed, Probability matrix of customers status conversion is calculated based on the process model. Combining the matrix, the average residual lifetime at the various stage of lifecycle are calculaed by the caculation method of first passage tines in markov chain.(3)The shaping method which is used to shaping the standard customer at various stage of lifecycle is presented. The method used to measuring the residual lifetime of individual customer is also proposed. Standard customers' behavior characteristic properties are extracted by rough entropy from a large number of customer behavior properties. The value of every properties of each standard customer is calculated by bayesian theory. Then, the standard customer of every stage is shaped. Meanwhile, each standard customer's residual lifetime is equal to the corresponding stage of the customers' average residual lifetime. The behavior similarity between the individual and the standard customer can be calculated by fuzzy nearness. Combining the corresponding standard customer's residual lifetime, the residual lifetime of the individual customer can be calculated on the basis of this similarity.(4)At last, the residual lifetime of the individual customer is applied to measure the individual customer's value. Based on the customer's value, combining the stage of customer life cycle, the customers are classified.Then, the management strategies of every type of customers is proposed in this dissertation.The main innovation of this dissertation is as follow:1) The indicators and method used to recognizing the individual stage of the customer lifecycle are proposed.2)The various stages of the life cycle of the customer's state transformation process is analyzed. Based on the analyzes, the method to measure the average residual lifetime at the various stage of lifecycle is proposed.3) the shaping method which is used to shaping the standard customer at various stage of lifecycle is presented. The method used to measuring the residual lifetime of individual customer is proposed.