Study On The Influence Of RMB Against RR Exchange Rate Changes On The Agricultural Products Trade Between China And Russia

The foreign exchange named as price relations of one currency to another currency. The exchange rate plays an important role as a significant economic lever and a major means of short-term macroeconomic regulation in Market Economy,the fluctuations in exchange will have an impact on domestic economy and foreign economic trade,and then affect the international trade and economy.As its economic might expands,China has played an increasingly important part in international politics and economy,and the RMB's international standing has risen notably.The inflation and the appreciation of RMB has become the focus of attention of the world,which is a good description of the important status of the RMB exchange rate in the country and even the world economy.The People's Bank of China noted in China monetary policy report released in September 2015, the report say that China will continue to follow the principles of controllability, proactive and progressive, and further improve the Yuan exchange rate formation mechanism, give full play to the RMB exchange rate on China's economy balance, economic restructuring and economic development strategy and its unique role in the economies in transition.China and Russia established long-term and stable strategic partnership has laid a solid foundation for the development of Sino-Russian trade and financial cooperation,which make the rapid development of the Sino-russia trade in agriculture.In November 2010,the RMB and Russia rubles (RR) have been directly convertible.Then whether the movement of the RMB exchange rate against the RR will have an impact on the Sino-russia trade and what is the influece? More specifically, whether this impact meet the Marshall-Lerner condition,whether exist the J-Curve Effect and whether the against RR appreciation will lead China's exports Russia agriculture reduction and imports increase? It is worth studying that what measures must be taken in different effects.Under the background of the RMB against the RR exchange rate fluctuations.China which is famous as a large agriculture country and the close neighbor of Russian Federation should consider how to give full play to ecnomic leverage role of the RMB against the RR exchange rate to promote the development of Russia import and export trade of agriculture products and take the comparative advantage of the trade of agriculture products to Russia,to further adjust the structure of exported agricultural products to Russia guided by the Russian market of agricultural products and speed up on Russian agricultural export of pace, to promote the development of China's rural economy has important theoretical and practical significance.This study aims to study the effect of the exchange rate movement of RMB to Russian Ruble on the agricultural products trade between China and Russia. First, to study this effect, ADF unit root test, Granger causality test, Johansen Co-integration test, the Lagrange multiplier test, Generalized Difference Method, Error-Correction Model and Impulse Response Function are used to study the balanced relationship in long term, short-term undulation mechanism, causal relationship and the dynamic response of mutual impact of the effect of the exchange rate of RMB to Russian Ruble, the export prices of Chinese agricultural products, Russia's GDP and CPI on China's export agricultural products to Russia. And based on the same principle and method, the effect of the exchange rate movement of RMB to Russian Ruble on China's export apples to Russia is studied in order to compare and check the conclusion of the effect of the exchange rate movement of RMB to Russian Ruble on China's export agricultural products to Russia.Secondly, based on the same principle, against the Russia ruble exchange rate, the prices of imports of agricultural products in China, China manufacturing purchasing managers index and Russia on imports of Chinese consumer price index Russia agricultural impacts of long-term equilibrium relation, short-term fluctuation mechanism, causal and dynamic response of impact studies, And based on the same principles and methods against the Russia ruble exchange rate on Chinese import Russia studies the impact of frozen fish to compare and validate against the Russia ruble exchange rate on Chinese import Russia agricultural impact conclusion.The analysis result of the effect of the exchange rate movement of RMB to Russian Ruble on China's export agricultural products to Russia showed that:whether RMB appreciation against Russian Ruble is long-term or short-term that would hinder China's agricultural products export to Russia. In the long-term, every 1% appreciation of RMB to Russian Ruble will reduce 0.746925% of China's agricultural products export to Russia; in the short-term, every 1% appreciation of RMB to Russian Ruble of this period will reduce 0.871982% of China's agricultural products export to Russia, whose last period will increase 0.132423% of it, which meets the J curve effect. Every 1% increase of China's agricultural products export price will promote the long-term China's export agricultural products to Russia up to 0.236394% and the short-term up to 0.218179%, which is remarkable but contrary to the theoretical expectation. Whether long-term or short-term, the increase of Russia's GDP will promote China's export agricultural products to Russia 0.420201% and 0.19037%, which is consistent with the theoretical expectation, and the long-term one is more remarkable than the short-term. The Rising of Russia's domestic prices has 0.779369% pull effect of long-term and 0.381109% pull effect of short-term on China's export agricultural products to Russia.Against Russia ruble exchange rate on Chinese exports Russia agricultural impact analysis results showed that:RMB exchange rate changes to the Russian currency both long-term and short-term impact on China's imports of agricultural products from Russia. In the long run, Appreciation of the RMB against the Russian currency 1%, China's imports of agricultural products from Russia will increase by 0.075349%; In the short term, This period and the last period of the RMB against the Russian currency appreciation of 1%, China's imports of agricultural products from Russia will increase by 0.601642% and 0.374940%, The effect is consistent with the theoretical expectation; China's agricultural products import price index and China's economic development level of China's economic development level of China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index on the impact of China's import of Russian agricultural products is very large, Long term effects were 0.247703%?1.64782%, The short-term effects were 0.277808% and 2.332498%, And the influence of both is consistent with the theoretical expectation; Russian residents on behalf of the price level of agricultural products, the length of the consumer price index of Chinese imports of agricultural products from Russia, the role of 0.381109% and 0.230743%, This effect is not consistent with the theoretical expectations.The analysis result of the effect of the exchange rate movement of RMB to Russian Ruble on China's export apples to Russia showed that:among the influencing factors of China's export apples to Russia, the exchange rate of RMB to Russian Ruble has the most significant influence. Every 1% appreciation of RMB to Russian Ruble will lower 1.12297% of long-term China's export apples to Russia and 0.53566% of short-term China's export apples to Russia, which is consistent with the theoretical expectation and confirms the result of the effect of the exchange rate movement of RMB to Russian Ruble on China's export agricultural products to Russia. Every 1% of Russia's CPI which represents its prices will lead to 1.560684% and 13.30691% increase of China's long-term and short-term export apples to Russia, which is contrary to the theoretical expectation. The effect of Russia's GDP which represents its national income on China's export apples to Russia is contrary to that of Agricultural products, for every 1% increase of Russia's GDP will lower 0.257928 long-term and 0.180443% short-term China's export apples to Russia.The impact of the RMB exchange rate on the Russian exchange rate movements on China's imports of Russian frozen fish:Changes in the RMB against the Russian currency exchange rate on China's imports of frozen fish, the impact is significant, Appreciation of the RMB against the Russian currency 1%. China's imports of frozen fish from Russia will be reduced by 0.339063%, This is not in conformity with the theoretical expectation. In the short term, This period and the period of the RMB against the Russian Ruble every 1% appreciation, China's imports of frozen fish from Russia will increase by 0.415718% and 0.165761%, RMB exchange rate changes on the Russian currency short-term increase in the amount of frozen fish imports from Russia to China to promote the role of, Long term but there are obstacles; On behalf of China frozen fish price level of Chinese agricultural products import price index and on behalf of China's economic development level of China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index of China's imports of frozen fish in Russia has a strong pulling effect, The pulling effect reached 0.269351% and 2.590471% respectively, And the influence of the two direction is consistent with the theoretical expectation, And the impact of the two Chinese imports of agricultural products from the same; Russia's price level of agricultural products on behalf of the Russian consumer price index rose will increase China's imports of frozen fish from Russia, Add up to 0.500709%,This effect is consistent with the theoretical expectations And with the Russian price level of China's import of agricultural products from the impact of the same role.The factors that affect agricultural trade between China and Russia, the effect of the RMB exchange rate against the Russia Ruble,import and export price of agricultural products,bilateral gross domestic product and bilateral price level is significant.There is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between variables, the Rmb exchange rate against the Russia Ruble and other explanatory variables and error correction mechanism between import and export of agricultural products between China and Russia and adjust the speed faster,no matter how long the balance of generalized difference results and short-term correction results are consistent with theoretical expectations.