The Analysis Of RMB Exchange Rate And Sino-US Agricultural Products Trade

This paper is to agricultural trade as an example, the analysis of exchange rates and trade relations for China's foreign trade of agricultural products will provide some suggestion to the agricultural policies.This paper based on the international economic theory,used of least-squares estimation, co-integration testing,error correction model,the impulse response function , and other modern econometric model of the RMB exchange rate movements on the Sino-US agricultural trade J-curve effect,and that the following conclusions. (1) The RMB exchange rate has inverse correlation to the Sino-US agricultural exports, and has positive correlation to the China's farm product exports to the United States. (2) For the RMB exchange rate,lags behind two nominal exchange rate of RMB has less important effect to China's agricultural export trade compare to the current real effective exchange rate of RMB influence, which shows that not the official exchange rate but the real effective exchange rate of RMB is the real affect to China's export trade. (3) By the vector error correction model that the impulse response function can be seen during the 2001 Sino-US bilateral trade, after the RMB appreciation there exactly has J-curve effect. From the perspective of long-term study, the real exchange rate appreciation has the negative impact of trade ratio. From the impulse response function,we can find in the real exchange rate appreciation of the four quarter,the ratio of trade showed the first decline after rising volatility, mainly due to the seasonal impact of agricultural products, the real exchange rate appreciation in the four quarter (a year) after the Sino-US agricultural trade show starting rate of long-term downward trend, mainly due to agricultural production cycle reasons.Finally, under the positive test results, presented policy recommendations, we believe that the administration should accelerate the reform of the RMB exchange rate system, improve the foreign exchange market mechanism. Enhance the international competitiveness of agricultural products in China,to actively improve the structure of agricultural exports, and vigorously develop China's international comparative advantage of agricultural products, and through the adjustment of national policies to increase government support for the vulnerable agricultural protection,and constantly open up the international market of agricultural products,expanding exports of agricultural products, improve the circulation of agricultural products,improve the market mechanism and the rural management system to reduce agricultural exports delay the income of the farmers affected.