A Study On Measurement And Regulation Of Credit Concentration Risk Of China Banks

China's economy is now stepping into the "new normal" phase,which reveals a change of economy growth rate,structure optimization and dynamic transf'ormation.Deepening reform of the supply and control of financial risk are the two prominent themes current economic development.Under the circumstances of slow economy growth rate and tight financing environment,the banking credit concentration risk is rapidly been exposed to the public.With the advancement of capital market reform,the direct financing of society employs a distinctive effect on the bank credit,and the shadow banking is impacting on the capital supervision system.For the banking industries,to improve the risk measurement and regulatory mechanisms as well as to accurately determine the diffusion channels and contagion effect of liquidity risk,are the main issues that they have to face.Based on the analysis of the worldwide research results of credit concentration risk,this paper discusses the risk measurement and supervision of China's banking industry from both theoretical and empirical aspects.The HHI index and the Lerner index are used to measure the concentration risk of China's banking credit.Based on the PCA-Logit model,the risk of industry loan concentration is evaluated.Analysis on the Relationship between Real Estate Risk Transmission and Bank Behavior in Beijing,Tianjin,Shanghai and Chongqing has been conducted by applying Spatial Panel Model.According to the basic principles of evolutionary game theory,this paper expounds the government regulatory borders under the bounded rationality of banks and enterprises.From the perspective of market failure and information asymmetry,this paper also derives the pro-cyclical mechanism of bank supervision.The Kohonen Network Clustering is thus used to demonstrate the Risk Conduction Effect among Commercial Banks.Through the multidimensional perspective analysis,this paper proposes some suggestions on how to improve the banking risk system and control policy.This dissertation is divided into seven parts,the main conclusions are as follows:First,in spite of the overall bank credit concentration risk being in a low level,its trend is increasing according to the dynamic measurement.This paper shows that the credit risk of China's banking industry is generally at a low level,but the concentration risk differs across various types of banks:the risk level of urban banks is the highest and is the lowest for the shareholding banks.According to the HHI index and the Lerner index,the Lerner Index has been showing a significant upward trend ever since 2014,indicating that the concentration risk is increasing in the dynamic trend.Second,the concentration risk of industry loan shows a feature of polarization,in which the monopoly industry has the lowest degree of concentration risk.The risk of industry loan concentration evaluated based on the PCA-Logit model shows,a higher default risk occurs in industries such as leather,fur,down and the related products industry,food processing industry as well as other traditional industries;while industries like power generation,power supply,telecommunications,oil and petrochemical industry show are relatively low default risk index.Third,commercial banks play a propellant effect on the increase of real estate risk;shadow banking system aggravates the risk contagion effect.The Spatial Effect of Real Estate Risks in Beijing,Tianjin,Shanghai and Chongqing has been explored by using the Common Panel Model and Spatial Panel Model.The result show,when the bank credit confidence standard is about 0.1,the bank credit has a significant propellant effect on real estate risk.An important way to control the risk contagion effect of the real estate is to control the shadow banking products such as trust and financing products.Fourth,the banking regulatory system framework should highlighty"three requirements",government regulation has to seek the mutual interest of both sides of the game balance and maximization of social welfare;counter-cyclical financial regulatory measures should be designed and guarantee no systematic risk and a healthy development of the real economy.The innovations of this paper are:firstly,the HHI index and the Lerner index are used to measure the risk of credit concentration in the banking industry,which ensures a relatively scientific risk measurement;second,based on the PCA-Logit model and the spatial panel model,the risk of the industry loan concentration is evaluated and the risk infection effect is proved to be exist;and third,the regulatory system framework is improved with a multidimensional view.