A Study On The Character Of Business Cycle Fluctuation And Its Driving Factors During Economic Transition Period In China

At present,the operation of macroeconomic of China has entered a systematic adjustment stage where the shift of economic growth,upgrading of industrial structure,internal and external demand balance broken and orientation shift of economic policy have become the core features of the current macroeconomic and macro regulation.L-type economic growth indicates that the first round of growth-oriented longwave is over and in the next period of time,the main form of business cycle fluctuations will also change.In view of this,this paper analyzes the characteristics of business cycle and the driving factors during economic transition in China,so as to provide a basic cognition and judgment on the main form and driving factors of the current business cycle and change of macroeconomic policy.The full paper can be divided into the following six parts:The first chapter is the introduction of this paper,including the significance and background,literature and theory review of business cycle.This chapter summarizes the main characteristics of the typical business cycle,such as the Great Depression,the Great Moderation and the Great Recession.The paper also find that L-type economic growth of China in the new normal period has a very unique character and is different from any other countries in any historical period.In the second chapter,the author discusses the characteristics of business cycle and its correlation with main macroeconomic indicators.In the New Normal period,the form of business cycle changes greatly from the previous,which show business cycle term structure drawing and growth rate fluctuation significantly decreasing.And the whole cycle has obvious flat shape and long tail in the contraction stage.In terms of the core driving force of economic growth,exports and investment are still core driving force during the twenty years after the market economy system reform.From the view of the world,economic growth correlation between China and the world is increasingly strong.Along with the opening process of China deepens and the pace of global economic integration accelerates,the impact of output,trade changes and financial contagion from the worldwide will become more intense to China.In the third chapter,the smoothing characteristics and the regime switching characteristics of the fluctuation of business cycle are studied and the results show that China's economic fluctuation and smoothing characteristic decreased significantly after 2011,indicating that the government has relaxed the pursuit of GDP growth speed and pays more attention to the quality of economy growth.In the fourth chapter,we put China's business cycle into the world's and explore the comovement characteristics of their business cycle fluctuation.The results show that in the current business cycle,the growth and prosperity of the world economy can promote China's economic growth in a short term,while the slow recovery of the world economy has a little effect.This means that the Modern Recession is only a typical feature of developed countries at this stage and will not have a strong impact on China's economic growth.Therefore,for China's economic growth,more attention should be paid to adjust its structure,speed up the reform of economic system and industrial structure.This can further improve China's economic development and transform growth mode to adapt to the economic environment in the new period.The fifth chapter studies the time-varying characteristics of the effects of main driving factors on the output through the DSGE model and TVP-VAR model.The results show that the shocks of technology and nominal interest rate have great impacts on real output.And,the impact of fiscal expenditure shock comes second while the impact of fixed-asset investments and asset prices are relatively weak.This once again shows that China's economic development is faced with structural problems such as low investment efficiency and virtual economy deviating from the real economy.In the sixth chapter,we study the effectiveness of monetary policy and fiscal policy to adjust the macroeconomic cycle and the level of inflation by using the vector autoregressive model with mixed data.The results show that the monetary policy is effective in the regulation of macroeconomic growth and the fiscal policy has a good control effect on the unpredicted business cycle.On the price level,the interest rate is more flexible on the regulation of CPI while M2 has a long-term effect.However,the effect of fiscal policy is limited to the price level regulation.