The Reasearch On Impact Mechanism Of Open Economic Shocks On China's Business Cycle

At present,China's economic development is in a loss of new normal period with economic growth decline,rebalancing the economy structure,and growth transformation.in the crucial period of the changing of rapid growth to high quality development,it has many long-term structural contradictions,combined with the trade protectionism,unilateralism and inverse rising globalization,and the growing trade friction stir up in the United States,external output,trade,investment,financial,and technical impact to China's economic cycle become more complicated.In this background,this paper used "question—literature analysis—theoretical simulation— empirical research" overall research train,with the combination of literature and reality,theory and practice,statistical analysis and econometric analysis,results analysis and policy suggestions framework,integrated use of economic cycle decomposition method,the correlation analysis method,the method of granger causality test,dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model,the nonlinear and time-varying parameter measurement model to study external economic shocks on China's economic cycle mechanism.the conclusions are as followings:First,the world economy is generally in the weak recovery period after the 2008 international financial crisis.Local geopolitical and military conflicts and trade frictions delay the recovery.In the whole sample period,the world economic operation presented a trend of "short cycle and high fluctuation",which was manifested as obvious characteristics of the kitchen cycle.The expansion period and contraction period of the world economic cycle had certain asymmetry.The economic cycle of different income countries shows a distinctive feature of differentiation,and the economic cycle of high-income countries and other countries shows a clear mismatch.The economic cycle in China and the world is mainly dominated by trend correlation,and the correlation between cycle correlation and growth rate is relatively weak.The economic trends in the us and the eurozone and in China are characterized by beggar-thy-neighbour.The us,Japan,Europe and China have "beggar-thy-neighbour" relationships when it comes to consumption and investment.Then,theoretical simulation based on DSGE model shows that positive impact of world aggregate demand,aggregate supply and financial level can promote the rise of China's output and inflation.The impact of world output and trade shocks tends to converge in the long run,the impact of world technological level shocks has a long-term effects,the exchange rate shocks have only short-term effects,and their long-term impact will turn negative.The impact of all kinds of shocks on the level of output is greater than the impact on the level of prices.Under the impact of various kinds of shocks,China's monetary policy has achieved good counter-cyclical regulation effect,and its output effect is greater than the price effect.China's economic cycle can be clearly divided into "high-volatility regime" and "low-volatility regime".China's economic growth has strong state dependence and continuity.Within the two regimes,the impact of world agricultural,industrial and service output shocks on China's economic growth are significantly positive.The self-sustained probability of China's economic growth is high,and the duration of the two systems is relatively high.The world's service sector output growth has the most obvious impact on China's economic growth,followed by industry and relatively weak agricultural output.In the "low volatility regime" system,the impact of world agricultural,industrial and service output growth on China's economic growth is significantly higher than that in "high volatility regime" system.The rise of RMB real effective exchange rate index can promote the improvement of China's economic climate level,and the depreciation of RMB against the us dollar,euro and yen can also promote the rise of China's macro-economic climate index,and show obvious time variability.The influence coefficient of RMB real effective exchange rate index on China's economic cycle shows a clear trend of "rising-peak-falling".The path of sino-us exchange rate influence coefficient on China's economic cycle is mainly related to the marketization reform process of China's exchange rate.The impact of China's exchange rate shock on China's economic cycle is more related to the world economic cycle,and the influence coefficient presents the character of "V" in the sample period.The trend of the influence coefficient of China and Japan exchange rate shock on China's economic cycle is basically the same as that of China and the United States.The positive impact of foreign trade can promote China's economic growth.The impact of overall trade and sino-us trade shocks on China's economic cycle is more sustainable,while the impact of sino-european and sino-japanese trade shocks tends to converge in the long run.Sino-us trade remains the most important external factor influencing China's economic cycle and is the main engine driving China's trade growth.The positive impact of FDI has a positive promoting effect on China's economic cycle,and the upward trend of China's economic cycle can also promote the inflow of FDI,in which the impact of FDI shock on the economic cycle shows an “inverted U-shaped” relationship.No matter the impact of foreign trade or FDI,the impact on China's economic cycle is obviously different in different regimes.At last,the world scientific and technological innovation has a certain spillover effect on China's economic cycle.The positive impact of world technology is conducive to the improvement of China's economic climate level,and this spillover effect has a certain time lag and transmission process.The impact of world technology impact on China's economic cycle presents a cyclical change rule,and its effect is affected by China's economic cycle itself,as well as by relevant international policies.The impact of American technology shock on China's economic cycle is basically the same as that of world technology shock.The impact of Japanese technology shock on China's economic cycle is obviously differentiated and different from that of world technology shock and American technology shock,and its effect shows the characteristic of "inverted U-shaped" with rapid rise in short-term and sustained decline in long-term.Synthesize the above research conclusion and the present domestic and international economic situation,this paper puts forward the following Suggestions: first,at the macro level,should maintain strategic concentration,unswervingly promote a wider range of reform and opening up and further stimulate the vitality of economic development,optimize the allocation of resources,improve the production efficiency,make more efficient use of market both at home and abroad,promote the tenacity and ability of China's economic development to bring down the adverse impact of fluctuations.Secondly,on the financial level,the central bank should stick to the direction of market-oriented reform of exchange rate,promote the basic stability of exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level on the premise of two-way fluctuations,and minimize the impact of exchange rate shock on China's economic cycle.Third,in terms of trade and investment,we should unswervingly expand the direction of opening-up and foreign investment,while unswervingly expand domestic demand,maintain the stability of our own economic development,properly resolve sino-us trade differences through various means,and avoid the negative impact of worsening trade wars.Finally,at the level of total supply,on the one hand,we should face up to the fact that China's current level of scientific and technological innovation is relatively inadequate,and strive to maintain a good trade and investment environment with developed countries.On the other hand,China should improve its capacity of independent innovation and get rid of technological dependence on developed countries by promoting institutional reform of science and technology education,increasing investment in education and science&technology,and introducing a long-term mechanism to promote independent innovation of science and technology.