Inflation,International Capital Flow And Macro Economy

Combining normative analysis and empirical test,this dissertation analyzes the relationship between inflation and macro economy,international capital flow and macro economy separately,based on potential economic variables and circumstances of emerging market,to explore a paradigm of macro finance analysis.This dissertation proposes a methodology of macroeconomic analysis by using potential economic variables,deduces Aggregate Demand–Inflation–Aggregate Supply dynamic and theoretical framwork to analyze the general relationship between inflation and business cycle,discusses integrated analysis framework to measure macroeconomic effects of international capital flow,considering the role of international cooperation.This dissertation infers long–term growth trends and turning points of China’s business cycle as well as business cycle synchronization of BRICS.Then,this dissertation offers China’s empirical evidences for the theoretical relationship between inflation and business cycle,estimates China’s moderate inflation interval and inflation target;identifies and analyzes autonomous international capital flow shocks on BRICS,tests for validity of the shocks as well as premise and significance of integrated analysis.According to the theoretical and empirical research,this dissertation proposes policies of macro control and opening up for China.