International Capital Flows And Their Macro-prudential Management

The scale of my country’s international capital flows shows a rapid growth as a whole,and the risks brought by international capital flows are an important obstacle that affects my country’s further opening of financial markets.In particular,due to its highly speculative and high-liquidity characteristics,international capital flows can lead to abnormal fluctuations in a country’s asset prices,which in turn can change a country’s potential systemic financial risk level.The macro-prudential policy tools can effectively suppress systemic financial risks due to the counter-cyclical characteristics.Therefore,establishing and improving my country’s macro-prudential management framework is an important goal of economic work.To this end,this paper analyzes the impact of international capital flows on the level of systemic financial risks and the management effect of macro-prudential policies.First,the theoretical discussion of the effect of international capital flow on China’s systemic financial risk accumulation and the characteristics of macro-prudential management tools related to it have resulted in the formation of "international capital flow → abnormal fluctuations in asset prices → systemic financial risk accumulation" Theoretical system.At the same time,it further theoretically analyzed the regulatory logic of macro-prudential policies on systemic financial risks.Secondly,in the process of empirical analysis,the impact of international capital flows on my country’s systemic financial risks and the management effect of macro-prudential policy tools were discussed.The research is mainly divided into three parts.The first part uses the comprehensive index method to measure China’s overall systemic financial risk;the second part studies the impact of international capital flow on systemic financial risk,and tests the heterogeneity of the relationship between the two by situation,further based on the intermediary effect A model to study the role of asset prices in the transmission mechanism of international capital flows in the process of systemic financial risk;the third part is based on the regulatory effect model,testing the effectiveness of China’s macro-prudential policy tools for systemic financial risk management,and building TVP-The VAR model studies the time-varying characteristics of the management effect of macro-prudential policy tools.The research results show that international capital flows have a boosting effect on systemic financial risks,and through the heterogeneity test,it is found that under the situation of international capital outflows,international capital flows have a greater impact on systemic financial risks."After that,the influence of international capital on systemic financial risk has decreased significantly;through the intermediary effect test,it can be found that asset price as an important intermediate transmission variable has played a role as a transmission mechanism in the process of international capital flow affecting systemic financial risk.The transmission mechanism of international capital flows → abnormal fluctuations in asset prices → changes in systemic financial risks.Finally,in terms of the management effect of macro-prudential policy instruments on systemic financial risks,different types of macro-prudential policy instruments have different strengths in different periods.The management effects of liquidity macro-prudential policy tools all played a stable role in 2007-2019,while the control effects of capital-type macro-prudential policy tools were more effective in the new normal economic period.