The Effect Of Outward Foreign Direct Investment On Employment In China

The interactive relationship between OFDI and motherland employment has always been a hot issue in the field of international economics.Due to the outward transfer of capital and output,some scholars believe that OFDI may lead to domestic employment hollowing.There are also a large number of practical issues found that OFDI has an alternative effect on the motherland employment,the ultimate net effect is related to the economic characteristics of the home country and the motivation of OFDI,and so on.Compared with the developed countries,China's OFDI started late,so its impact on motherland employment has not yet attracted enough attention of domestic scholars.Over the past decade,China's OFDI increase rapidly,up to 2014 the OFDI stock reached 123.12 billion US dollars and 1.85 million domestic investors set up a total of 2.97 million enterprises in foreign countries.And then since the 1990s,China's unemployment rate has been rising and the employment situation has become increasingly serious,especially in the industrial sector.So how does China's OFDI affect domestic employment?Whether it is consistent with the mechanism and conclusions of the developed countries?To answer these questions,this dissertation analyzes the impact of China's OFDI on domestic employment based on the characteristics of China's own economic development and OFDI,by means of theoretical analysis and empirical research.The dissertation finds that most studies about the relationship between OFDI and motherland employment lack of the unified framework,and many theoretical and practical issues still need to be discussed.Domestic studies were analyzed by using simple regression methods from the perspective of statistics and qualitative.There are following shortcomings.The analysis of China's OFDI impact on domestic employment from a macro perspective lack of the analysis on the point of the medium level and the micro level,while China is a developing country on the stage of economic transformation,China's OFDI has its own characteristics.The analysis ignores the impact of OFDI motivation on domestic employment,and does not consider the difference between the investment area and the characteristics of the investment structure.The analysis has studied the role of the home country and the host country alone,few scholars studied the impact on employment in the home country associating OFDI with the status of international division.As a measure of a country's relative competitiveness in the international index,Global Value Chain division status is bound to affect the behavior of OFDI,and thus affect the employment of the home country.In addition,combing the basic theory,the traditional theory of international investment only explains the motivations and conditions of OFDI in developed and developing countries respectively,lacking of an analysis of the theory and transmission mechanism of OFDI's impact on employment in home country.Therefore,based on the existing theories and research,the dissertation comprehensively studies the employment effect of OFDI by using transnational and provincial panel data,on the one hand,explaining the relationship between OFDI and home country employment level from statistical data;on the other hand,combined investment type,investment structure and Global Value Chain division status,analyzing the influence of OFDI on the employment scale and employment structure of the mother country.The dissertation systematically summarizes the status of China's OFDI,employment scale and employment structure,and reveals the characteristics and problems of OFDI and employment in China,while statistically reflects the variation of both data and contact.Then,the employment effect of OFDI is tested from different perspectives.Firstly,from the perspective of the total amount of foreign direct investment,using 2003--2012 China's Provincial Panel Data,the dissertation analyzes OFDI's effect on employment by the system GMM method,and compare the regions.The results show that OFDI has a significant effect on the employment in China,but there are some differences between the regions,OFDI has the greatest effect on the employment promotion in the western region.OFDI has a significant role in optimizing the employment structure in China,but only the OFDI in the eastern region increased its relative demand for skilled labor and optimized its employment structure by comparison.Further,in order to analyze whether China's own economic characteristics will affect this effect,the model adds the interactive items of OFDI and industrial structure and productivity respectively,the following conclusions:optimizing the industrial structure and improve productivity will inhibit the promotion of OFDI on employment,and the most significant inhibition is eastern part.Secondly,using the system GMM method,the dissertation estimates the effect of the China's manufacturing OFDI on China's employment from the perspective of OFDI type.The main conclusions are as follows:manufacturing OFDI has significantly improved the employment level of domestic manufacturing industry,and mainly comes from the verticalOFDI;manufacturing vertical OFDI significantly increased the relative demand of domestic skilled labor,optimizing the employment structure;The horizontal OFDI also increases the relative demand for domestic skilled labor,but the effect is less than that of vertical OFDI.Considering Global Value Chain division status of the manufacturing industry,it has been found that the increase in the division of labor value of the manufacturing global value chain will inhibit the promotion of OFDI on domestic employment.Thirdly,from the perspective of the investment structure of OFDI,the dissertation calculates the OFDI stock of China's manufacturing industry in developing and developed countries,the binary marginal stock of OFDI,and then analyzes its impact on China's employment.The main conclusions are as follows:Chinese manufacturing dual gradient OFDI has a stimulating effect on domestic manufacturing employment and the relative demand of domestic skilled labor,and the effect of the forward OFDI is greater than the"inverse" OFDI.But there are differences in manufacturing results at different levels of technology,the promotion of domestic employment of low-tech manufacturing OFDI is mainly from "inverse" OFDI in the developed countries;the promotion of domestic employment of medium and high technology manufacturing industry is mainly from the forward OFDI in developing countries.Further,the study of the structural characteristics of OFDI on the impact of domestic employment found that the promotion on domestic employment is mainly from the expansion of investment margin,different technical levels show a concerted conclusion.The promotion effect of forward OFDI on domestic employment is mainly from the margin of concentration.The effect of inverse OFDI on domestic employment is mainly from the expansion margin.Manufacturing OFDI binary margin increase the relative demand of the skilled labor force in China's manufacturing industry,but the role of the expansion margin is greater than the margin of the margin,indicating that the role of manufacturing OFDI on the domestic employment structure is mainly dependent on the expansion of investment margin.Finally,the dissertation studies the impact of OFDI on China's employment scale and employment structure by using the panel data of China's service industry in 2004-2013 from the perspective of service industry OFDI.The main conclusions are as follows:service industry OFDI has a positive effect on China's service sector employment,but reduces the relative demand of skilled labor;producer services OFDI has no significant effect on China's employment scale,but significantly reduced the relative demand of skilled labor;the consumer service sector OFDI has a positive effect on China's employment.According to the above conclusions,the dissertation presents relevant policy recommendations:different OFDI policies for different types of host countries;improve transnational private enterprise strategy,structure and competition status;improve state-owned multinational corporate governance;promote the advantages of middle and western enterprises to take advantage of technology and cost,and actively participate in overseas cooperation;effective use of manufacturing OFDI,increase the pulling effect on employment in China;pay attention to the cultivation of Chinese skilled labor;increase investment in productive services in developed countries.