| In recent years,due to the economic slowdown in the real economy,capital market volatility and other multiple factors,the problems of the real economy cycle and financial cycle gradually become the focus of government,academics and the public.In fact,asset price volatility in October 2014 and the current round of real estate cycle at the end of 2015 have shown that: the boom and recession,duration length,and the peak valley divide of the real economy cycle and financial cycle may be largely mismatch,which worth us to pay more attention to.In view of this,this article embarks from the real economy cycle and financial cycle and systematically researches the mechanism of the cycle matching in the last decade in China.At the same time,it also discusses the role of monetary policy in the process of regulating the real economy cycle and financial cycle to complement and improve the research in this field.Specifically,the full text of the study is divided into the following parts.First of all,in the first chapter,the paper systematically reviews the generation process of the concept of financial cycle,and found that the financial cycle,through the conduction of financial system,is a continuity,cyclical chang,when financial activities are subject to their own internal shocks or external shocks.Then,through further research,it is found that most researches are based on two aspects of the financial price cycle and the financial stability cycle.In terms of the price cycle,real estate prices and stock prices are the most commonly used cycle indexes.For the financial stability cycle,the researchers are more inclined to take the synthetic index method to build the index.Subsequently,the full text of the study in accordance with financial price cycle and the financial stability cycle to carry out a systematic expansion.The second to fourth chapter describe the correlation between financial price cycle,real economy cycle and monetary policy,so as to provide typical facts with important theoretical support and empirical evidence,like the stock fever in 2014-2015 of China,and the real estate prices boom at the beginning of 2015.Then,from the beginning of the fifth chapter,the paper studys the financial stability cycle,and constructs China's financial stability index.In the sixth chapter,the TVP-VAR model is used to describe the time-varying characteristics of correlation between the financial stability cycle,the real economy cycle and monetary policy.Researches,based on the two chapter,provid a corresponding reference for the researchers to understand the relationship between the stability of the financial system,the real economy and policy regulation in the past 10 years.In general,the following conclusions are drawn in this paper:First,from the financial price cycle research,in the process of real estate price regulation,the impact of the credit scale on the real estate price is the most effective.Especially for the developed regions,the credit scale will not affect the economic development of the region while effectively control the housing prices,reflecting a good synergy characteristics.But the deposit reserve rate and interest rate regulation of regional real estate price does not show significant effect.This shows that if the government and relevant departments want to make real estate prices in the rational location,they should start with directly credit regulation.In the third chapter,the paper studys from another important measure of the financial price cycle--the stock price.It is found that,under the assumption of rational investors,the stock market will inevitably appear speculative bubbles,and the rational bubble in the stock market also has the characteristics of self-growth.On the actual experience of China's stock market,the bubble in stock market shows a time period of agglomeration phenomenon in the savings and rupture period.Among them,2005-2007 and 2014-2015,the stock prices appeared two rounds of typical bubble burst and foam accumulation,resulting in a higher financial risk.Then,this chapter carries on the further investigation to the characteristic and the ductility of the stock price bubble.It is found that the two rounds of asset price bubbles in our country still belong to the rational bubble.But the production of bubbles usually has a certain time and will continue revising the expectation of investors,and it usually has a long memory,which is bad to the development of the real economy and will also bring soft constraints to policy control.Finally,from the policy regulation's perspective,the guiding role of monetary policy on asset prices are always valid,but it has obvious time-varying characteristics,especially in recent years,the central bank continuously use the strategy of reducing the deposit reserve rate and the interest rate to guide asset price correction and real economic recovery,which makes policy adjustments appear obvious feature of diminishing marginal utility.In the fourth chapter,this paper no longer distinguishes the financial price index,using the Q model and DSGE model for empirical research,and it found that the interest rate regulation on asset price shows the characteristics of strong regulation and control and a longer return period.This shows that the central bank through the interest rate control can effectively reflect to the asset price fluctuation.In the implementation of monetary policy,we should pay attention to the long-term impact of interest rate on asset price level,so as to better regulate asset price fluctuations,iron asset price fluctuations,and maintain the healthy and orderly operation of the financial markets.In the fifth chapter,this paper researches the issues of financial stability.This chapter selects 14 core indicators containing the development of financial institutions,the vulnerability of financial institutions,capital market conditions and the macroeconomic situation to the fit the financial stability index in China.The results found that this index can better describe the stability and the vulnerability of China's financial system,highlighting systemic financial risk caused by the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008 in the United States and capital market volatility in 2015 in China.Then,in the sixth chapter,on the basis of this index,studying the time-varying system,results showed that correlation between economic growth and financial stability has obvious time-varying characteristics.Before the subprime crisis,they have weak correlation.But after the subprime crisis,the effect of financial stability in promoting economic growth is continuously enhanced and increasingly economic growth also can effectively improve the financial stability in the long term.Especially after entering the economic “new normal” period,the mutual dependency relation between the two is significantly enhanced.This shows that in the current situation of the coexistence of systemic risk and financial risk,the governance of financial risks and promoting the development of the real economy have a synergistic feature.Therefore,the government and relevant departments should attach great importance to the coordination of the two,so as to ensure that the economic growth in the middle and high speed to form a stage of growth convergence,coordinate economic growth shift,stimulate policies to digest,upgrade the industrial structure and prevent the financial risk,and thus make the whole macroeconomic system gradually form local steady state in the new normal period. |
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