The Influence Of Exchange Fluctuation On The Economy Of China And The United States

The exchange rate issue is the most sensitive link between the two countries'economic fields and even the most sensitive in all the relations.The United States believes that in China's operation in the foreign exchange market,the RMB is controlled in the relatively low range,so that Chinese enterprises gain export advantages.Since the equilibrium exchange rate of the RMB is still being explored,before the "fair" exchange rate is born,there will also be a debate on the exchange rate between the two countries.In view of this,the study of Sino US exchange rate game has important significance for the exchange of bilateral trade and capital and the RMB exchange rate reform in the future.The paper has set up a systematic indicator system to prove the importance of Sino-US trade and financial relationship to each other and through empirical research has analyzed the impact of the bilateral trade and financial relations on the economic growth of the two countries.The paper starts from price,analyzes the basis of the exchange rate game of the two countries through Sino-US exchange rate transfer and analyzes the impact of RMB exchange rate change on the US price through comparison of major countries and setting up empirical research models.At the micro-level,the paper has set up a cournot game model,analyzes the impact of RMBexchange rate change on different sectors under the Sino-US consistent market framework and carries out an empirical research.At the macro-level,the paper has set up a dynamic game model to analyze the change regularities of the national-level interests and the retaliation and anti-retaliation regularities of the two countries,and has carried out an empirical analysis of the impact of accompaniment on interest loss in the exchange rate game of the two countries.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)In view of the absolute ratio,the trade relationship between China and U.S.is extremely close.Based on the relative ratio,the intensity of China's exports to U.S.is falling,while the intensity of U.S.exports to China is rising.The closeness of direct investment between China and U.S.is far less than the trade relationship,but due to a large scale of China's investment in U.S.Treasury Securities,the empirical results show that the U.S.economic development has a significant impact on China's exports to U.S.and China's economic growth,but the reverse impact of China is not obvious.(2)Among major importing countries of U.S.,the impact of China's exchange rate on the price of U.S.is the lowest,but the results of empirical analysis shows that considering supply and other factors,fluctuations in the exchange rate of RMB still have a certain impact on the price of U.S.(3)Under the framework of China-USA uniform market,RMB exchange-rate appreciation will negatively impact the optimal output by Chinese manufacturers(for domestic or foreign sales)while positively impact the optimal output by USA manufacturers(for domestic or foreign sales).caused a positive impact.When either USD or RMB is uniformly used to denominate the profits of various sectors in USA and China,it can be found that Chinese manufacturers' maximum profits are dependent on the negative impact or parameters from RMB exchange-rate appreciation while USA manufacturers' maximum profits are dependent on the positive impact or parameters therefrom.(4)In the game between China and US at the state level,the trade structure and trade dependency between the two sides and US's emphasis on its interests in export and import decide whether US will choose to make the RMB revalue.Yet,under different circumstances,the conditions pushing US to revalue RMB are different.That is to say,there exist different threshold values,and the change in the values is related to Sino-US retaliation and anti-retaliation,and to China's emphasis on its import and export interests.