Research On Local Government Debt In China Based On Land Finance:Scale,Risk And Transmission

Public investment is an important means of local government to develop the economy,in the case of local government's limited financial resources,the local government through debt financing to make up for the financial gap for public investment.Under the special arrangement of land system in our country,the market-oriented operation of the land resources makes the debt financing mode have the"lever".Land transfer income not only plays an important role in the local government revenue in the current period,but also is the main source of the government's commitment to future debt repayment.Because the debt bound land revenue,land prices to form a constraint on the future of local government solvency,the government debt has a positive impact on the price of land,so that the local government has maintained a strong internal push and high real estate prices drive and drive strong demand for land.Although local government debt management entered a new era after the the new "budget law",but the investment impulse is still obvious because the overall downtown pressure on the economy and local government investment in the construction of the arduous task of institutional,local disposable income to rely on the expansion of land is very hard to change in the short term.based on this problem,the core power of China's local government debt expansion and dependent on land sustainability and debt risk income to repay the government debt still needs to continue to pay attention to.In this paper,analyzes the important role of the land institution environment for local government debt expansion firstly,and abstract out the Interaction and strengthening mechanism between the price and the size of local government debt based on the relationship;Based on the fact that the local government debt is highly dependent on the land finance,this paper analyzes the unsustainable nature of local government debt,and then analyzes the risks and possible transmission routes.Finally,according to the occurrence of local government debt and its risk conduction risk control measures and suggestions.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The tax system is the basic motivation and "excuse" of local government debt and its emergence.The economic growth mode,the performance appraisal system and the corresponding official promotion mechanism,which are mainly driven by investment,provide the impetus for the expansion of the scale of local government debt" The local government financing platform of local government debt makes the original motivation for development can be realized,and the arrangement of land system for local government financing platform impetus,the city state-owned land system,land reserve system,land bidding and auction system,land expropriation system is the basic system of the operation of local government financing platform,and gradually the formation and evolution of land revenue to repay the land mortgage guarantee,credit guarantee mode of local government debt financing;(2)there is a mutual "push" mechanism between land prices and the scale of government debt,and the expected price increase is the key to the operation of this mechanism.The land system leads to the institutional path of the mechanism;(3)fixed assets investment,land price,land transfer income and economic development level are the main drivers of the expansion of local government debt,and the financial gap is not the main motive force of debt expansion.Formed a "land price rise-land financing capacity-infrastructure investment-stimulating economic growth-land prices rising" positive feedback relationship;(4)with reduced year by year,land revenue growth slowed and the land system reform of land revenue,land revenue inflection point,and as a premium and prices subject to market fluctuations,depend on the land transfer income to repay the debt is not necessarily sustainable;(5)the risk of local government debt should be considered from three aspects:debt impulse,debt status and debt paying ability.The "stress state response" model can be used to assess the risk of local government debt;(6)we should start with the deep reform of the land system,break the existing institutional environment,and then promote the reform of land finance and financial system.We can prevent and control the debt risk from three aspects,such as curbing excessive borrowing,impulse,dissolving the existing debt and improving the ability to repay debts.