The Influence Of Land Price On The Debt Of Local Government In Western China

Over the past 40 years since China's reform and opening up,various undertakings have made a qualitative leap,but at the same time there are also some problems.Since the reform of the tax sharing system in 1994,the"financial power" of local governments in China has not matched the "rights of management".Local governments in various regions have accumulated large amounts of debt and have shown a tendency of rising year after year.According to the resolution of the State Council on Proposals for Reviewing and Approving the Debt Limits of Local Governments in 2015 passed by the 16th meeting of the Standing Committee of the 12th National People's Congress on August 29,2015,by the end of 2015,the national At 1.6 billion yuan,the debt ratio was 86%,and the actual debt ratio was 89.2%.Under such circumstances,due to the improper estimation of the economic environment,political system,morality,and self-ability of China's local governments,there are huge debts,a large number of major debtors,heavy repayments,and major urban construction debt ratios.Debt information is not comprehensive and opaque,the use of debt funds is unreasonable,and liabilities are increasingly hidden.The development of local government debt in China is a long-term and complex social phenomenon.There are several aspects that affect the local debt factor.Take the provincial panel data of 11 provinces in western China as an example,and draw conclusions from the principal component analysis:(1)Average sales of commercial housing Price,Real Estate Development Enterprises Purchased Land Average Price,Local Fiscal Revenue,Local Fiscal Expenditure,Domestic Loans for Real Estate Development Enterprises,Gross Regional Product,Completed House Area,Secondary Industry Added Value,Tertiary Industry Added Value,Population,State-owned Land Transfer Twelve factors,such as income and state-owned land for construction construction,are the major components affecting local government debt in the western provinces of China.(2)Among the western provinces,Sichuan Province,Chongqing City,Shaanxi Province,Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region and Gansu Province have a higher debt ratio.To better control the performance of local government debt,all aspects of the performance of good performance.The increase in land prices in China is not conducive to the control of the scale of local debt,but too low land prices will also have negative consequences for local governments,causing debt risks.By constructing the Wilson stress test model,we tested the changes in the debt ratio of local government debt caused by falling property prices in China,and reached the following conclusions:(1)When the price of land in the western region of China fell by more than 10%,local governments needed to be vigilant.And take the non-market control measures;(2)China's western region land prices.fell by a limit of 20%,the local government to avoid the limit of land prices fell more than 20%.To this end,it proposes two strategies for optimizing land prices and controlling the scale of local government debt under structural reforms on the supply side.