China-Africa Bilateral Trade And Investment’s Influencing Mechanism On African Industrial Transformatio

At present,the China-Africa relation is in the midst of the best historical period,and the China-Africa economic and trade cooperation is transferring from trade coming as the first place to investment acting as the leading role.The China-Africa cooperation is also the model of South-South Cooperation and is of great importance to shape,promote and lead development of Africa.Industrial transformation is the only way that must be passed to achieve industrialization and modernization target for Africa.In this process,both sides take each other as necessity,advantage and opportunity.Firstly,based on the existing theoretical research and empirical analysis from both home and abroad,this thesis summarizes the theoretical relationship between international trade,foreign direct investment and industrial transformation into three types including comparative advantage transformation,technical progress driven and protection policy support.Trade and investment play an overall positive role in promoting the industrial transformation in the host country.However,trade play an indirect role which means the effect of trade is closely linked to host country’s technology absorption capability and product structure of trade,and investment play a direct promoting role at most of the time.Secondly,from the perspective of industrial transformation,this thesis conducts a comprehensive analysis about the historical evolution of China-Africa bilateral trade and investment and Africa’s endogenous power to realize industrial transformation.Further on,based on three aspects including human resource cultivation,industry cluster and industrial structure supererogation,this thesis puts forward China-Africa trade and investment’s influencing mechanism on African industrial transformation,and further analyze the industrial transformation trend adjustment under the background of the world economy pattern changing from "core-periphery" structure to the "binary" structure and new requirements for South-South Cooperation under the new situation.Finally,this thesis takes South Africa as an example and conducts case analysis about Gansu Baiyin Nonferrous Group,Hisense South Africa industrial park and Huawei South Africa company to summarize experiences from project practice.This thesis uses the panel date of 20 countries in Africa in 2003-2015 and adopts fixed effect model and random effect model combined with Hausman test,which aims to carry on a contrast research about the correlation between China-Africa or US-Africa trade and investment and industrial transformation in Africa.By comparing the effects of South-South Cooperation and North-South Cooperation,this thesis explores a deeper understanding about China-Africa trade and investment’s influencing mechanism and acting path on African industrial transformation,and draws the following conclusion:Ⅰ.In the short term,trade imposes restrictions on industrial transformation in Africa,investment play positive role.China’s investment in Africa showcases characteristics of vertical integration and horizontal integration,whose affecting channels include through technology transfer to cultivate local human resources,through building platforms such as industrial park to foster industry cluster and scale effect,and then push the industry development to a higher level.Infrastructure is of great importance to industrial transformation in Africa,whose pulling effect is even more remarkable than investment.So helping Africa developing infrastructure and realizing interconnection and intercommunication is the key point in China-Africa cooperation.The empirical results show that China-Africa trade plays a negative role in industrial transformation process in Africa.The main reasons is that endogenous power to realize industrial transformation and technology absorption capability are far from adequate,and bilateral trade product structure is relatively solidified.It is hard for Africa to push forward industrial transformation by rapidly integrating into the global value chain.Ⅱ.The effect of South-South Cooperation is better than that of North-South Cooperation,the emerging economies such as China is playing a connecting link between the preceding and the following role.The empirical results show that the correlation between China-Africa trade and investment and industrial transformation in Africa is significant,but the correlation between US-Africa trade and investment and industrial transformation in Africa is not significant.Under the background of world economy pattern in the transition to "binary" structure and directions of industrial transfer changing,the emerging economies such as China is playing a connecting link between the preceding and the following role during the process of promoting South-South Cooperation.When emerging economies transferring industries to other developing countries,emerging economies should encourage independent innovation to push forward industrial structure supererogation and avoid industry hollowing etc.The other developing countries should create favorable conditions for carrying on industrial transfer and promoting industrial transformation.Based on the above conclusions,this thesis comes up with the following suggestions:For the Chinese side,China should strength the top-level design and make policy specific to one country,attach importance to investment’s leading role and innovate cooperation patterns,and emphasize to “teach how to fish” and spread cooperation experiences.For the African side,Africa should increase the intensity of attracting investment and optimize trade structure,accelerate integration and promote elements freely flow,and improve institutional system and governance level.