The Research On Modes Of China's Monetary Policy Regulation And Control Under The New Economic Norm

The function of monetary policy is to achieve the monetary policy targets set by the central bank through monetary policy tools operation,whether it is economic growth,price stability,full employment or other,the final effect is closely related to the monetary policy regulation modes.The monetary policy regulation modes have evolved by the development of modern monetary economics and the economy cycles.Classical economics advocates liberalism,and it means that monetary policy regulation is superfluous.At the beginning of twentieth Century,in the guidance of Keynes economics the western developed countries get rid of the “ world economic depression ”,and created a“post-war economic miracle”.However,in 70 s facing “stagflation”caused by two“oil crisis”,the discretion mode is incapable of action.When Kydland & Presccot(1977)firstly introduced the “ time inconsistency ” into the field of monetary economics,the understanding of monetary policy regulation modes seem to be returning to the classical economics era.In the cyclical fluctuation of economic development,as the monetary policy control modes change from expansion to contraction,the economy and society has paid a huge cost.Especially after the financial crisis,nations gradually go out of the shadow of the crisis with central banks taking radical monetary policy regulation.But the post crisis era under the new economic norm,the monetary policy of all countries in the world will face the transition crisis management to the normal.Not only to maintain stable economic growth,but also to stimulate endogenous development momentum does become an important proposition to choose the way of Chinese monetary policy regulation mode under the new normal.In this paper,the Chinese monetary policy regulation modes in the new norm becomes the research objects.First of all,this paper expounds the theoretical basis of the monetary policy regulation mode.It analyzes the mechanism of the expansion and contraction of monetary policy regulation modes,the origin and flow of the neutral monetary policy,and establishes the framework of the neutral monetary policy operation index.Secondly,it compares and analyzes the history of monetary policy regulation mode in the United States,Japan and Germany.Thirdly,it discusses the way of the Chinese monetary policy total regulation modes in the new norm.In the framework of the neutral monetary policy operation index,this paper takes empirical tests with the data of China from 1992 to 2013 as the sample.Finally,the paperanalyzes deeply the way of China's monetary policy structure regulation modes in the new norm,and discusses the extension of the interval regulation to the directional control.This paper draws the following conclusions:firstly,the traditional monetary policy regulation modes are not enough to deal with the China's new situation in the new norm.It will significantly increase the pressure of inflation by the pure expansionary monetary policy,and increase economic downside risk by the pure tightening of monetary policy;secondly,theories and historical experience show that the neutral monetary policy can stimulate the endogenous dynamics of a economy and keep sustainable development;thirdly,on the basis of the neutral monetary policy operation index,it establish the Chinese total monetary policy regulation mode in new norm,which it is supported by the actual test data;fourthly,the connotation of China's monetary policy structure regulation modes in the new norm expanses from the interval control to the directional control,to solve the weak link of economic development,to prevent the economic downturn risk,to lay the foundation for future development.The innovation of this paper is embodied in the following aspects:first,the innovation of neutral monetary policy theory.This paper puts forward the concept of neutral monetary policy operation,and discusses its connotation and model expression,concludes a better empirical results especially by the practice of monetary policy adjustment since 1992.Second is the innovation of monetary policy regulation mode in new norm,that is,the neutral in overall,the structural in orientation.Play the advantages of neutral operation in time consistency,but also avoid to stick in the mud.While maintaining the overall neutrality,it should be targeted regulation and control by monetary policy,accurately solve the problem of the short board in the development of the real economy.Third is the innovation of the measure in targeted monetary policy regulation and control.The paper constructs the neutral regulation index,and measures the monetary authorities' preferences,direction,intensity,frequency in regulation and control and so on,which can be used as the basis for the realization of the ultimate goal of monetary policy.The policy implication of this paper is that the pure neutral monetary policy or non neutral can not make the Chinese economy development steadily andcontinuously.Therefore,the central bank's optimal monetary policy regulation mode is to consider the neutral in overall,and structural orientation in general idea.In the neutral monetary policy framework,it is that stimulates endogenous economic vitality to lay a solid foundation for the future of the economy recovery strongly,which to maintain the stability of economic growth,to make up the short board in development by directional control.