Research On Economic Policy Uncertainty,monetary Policy Effectiveness And Regulation Orientation Change

Since the People's Bank of China resumed the functions of the central bank in 1984,currency regulation has alternated and coordinated between “direct regulation” and “indirect regulation”,“quantity instruments” and “price instruments”,“single target” and “multiple targets”.The regulatory framework is maturing.Although the interest rate “freedom” has been basically achieved in the process of gradual progress,it has not yet achieved the situation where the interest rate “formed” and “adjusted”.Under the new situation,the effectiveness of China's monetary policy macro-control has weakened,and the effectiveness of monetary policy is facing severe tests.The 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed that China's economy already has the necessary conditions for high-quality development,and economic development has shifted from rapid growth to quality growth.In the context of high-quality economic development,how to ensure the quality of economic growth on the basis of "steady growth",such as the design of monetary policy frameworks and transmission mechanisms,is not only an important theoretical problem faced by the theoretical and academic circles,but also a major practical issue.This dissertation analyzes Economic Policy Uncertainty,Monetary policy regulation orientation Changes and High-Quality Economic Development through the VAR expansion and DSGE expansion models.According to research ideas and content framework of this article,the main chapters of the article include the following:The basic theory of the thesis includes chapter 1 and chapter 2.Chapter 1 mainly introduces the background,significance,academic development history,research ideas and main contents of the research theme of the thesis.On this basis,it focuses on research methods and main innovations of this article,and focuses on understanding the significance of this article.With domestic and foreign research development,find the entry point and marginal contribution of the research.Chapter 2 of the thesis is built on the introduction of research significance and research ideas.This chapter deals with economic policy uncertainty and macroeconomic fluctuations,monetary policy and macroeconomic fluctuations,monetary policy regulation orientation and economic growth Relevant basic theories such as quality are elaborated and explained to provide theoretical support for empirical analysis such as the macroeconomic effects of economic policy uncertainty and the dynamic effectiveness of monetary policy considering economic policy uncertainty.The empirical analysis part of the thesis includes: chapter 3,chapter 4,chapter 5 and chapter 6.Chapter 3 is “Analysis of Macroeconomic Time-Varying Effects of Economic Policy Uncertainties”.This chapter uses the SV-TVP-FAVAR model to perform impulse analysis on the economic effects of economic policy uncertainty based on indicators such as shock extremes and short-term effects.By incorporating expectation factors into the analysis framework,we initially discuss the uncertainty reverse regulation effect of expectation management.Chapter 4 is “Analysis of the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Quantitative and Price-based Instruments based on the Qualitative Description of Regulation Orientation”.In this chapter,firstly,based on the MF-VAR model with mixing data processing capability,we will conduct a mixed test on the correlation between monetary policy variables and macroeconomic variables,and further use the time-varying dynamic SV-TVP-FAVAR model to investigate the different monetary policy regulation orientations.The effectiveness of monetary policy,thus demonstrating that changes in the monetary policy regulation orientation will have an impact on the effectiveness of monetary policy regulation,and then lead to a quantitative test of the relationship between the monetary policy regulation orientation and the effectiveness of monetary policy.Chapter 5 is “Quantitative Measurement and Economic Effect Analysis of Monetary Policy Regulation Orientation”.This chapter first calculates the monetary policy regulation index based on the long-term and short-term tightness indicators,and analyzes the heterogeneity macroeconomic effects of the monetary policy regulation orientation,mainly including the relationship between the monetary policy regulation orientation and urban and rural consumption,the monetary policy regulation orientation and entrepreneurial confidence.Chapter 6 is “Monetary Policy Regulation Orientation and China's High-quality Economic Development”.This chapter first calculates the high-quality development index of China's economy based on the mixed dynamic factor model,and on this basis uses the time-varying dynamic SV-TVP-FAVAR model to analyze the effect of monetary policy regulation orientation on economic growth quality regulation.Research Conclusions and Policy Recommendations: Chapter 7 is mainly a comprehensive summary of the previous theoretical basis,empirical analysis,measurement inspection and other chapters,and on the basis of research conclusions and targeted solutions,the dissertation presents the deficiencies,and further points out the deficiencies and weak academic research On the basis of other issues,the prospect of follow-up academic research is proposed.As the main economic policy means,the choice of monetary policy tools should serve macroeconomic regulation.It is undeniable that during the period of rapid economic growth in China,the operation of monetary policy has achieved remarkable results in macroeconomic regulation.The 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed that China's economy already has the necessary conditions for high-quality development,and economic development has shifted from rapid growth to quality growth.In the context of high-quality economic development,how to ensure the quality of economic growth on the basis of “steady growth”,such as the design of monetary policy frameworks and transmission mechanisms,is not only an important theoretical issue faced by the theoretical and academic circles,but also a major practical issue.In addition,monetary policy can regulate the preset objectives of the policy authorities through a specific transmission mechanism,and the macroeconomic regulation effect has been significant.It has always been an important means for monetary policy authorities to regulate the macroeconomics.It can be said that in the new situation,it is important to discuss the effects of economic policy uncertainty on macroeconomic and monetary policy regulation,the orientation changes of monetary policy regulation under the New Coronary Pneumonia epidemic,expectation management,monetary policy regulation orientation,and the quality of economic growth.