Research On Multi-method Evaluation Of Regional Logistics Development

Regional logistics to promote the role of regional economic development has become increasingly prominent, the logistics industry has become a new growth point of regional economy. However, with the continuous growth of regional logistics, there are some problems in the development process, more and more need to carry out specific comparison and evaluation, specify the problem and propose the direction of improvement. In view of the above situation, a more systematic and comprehensive evaluation of China's regional logistics development has become a top priority.This thesis evaluates and analyzes China's regional logistics from five aspects.First, the logistic model is used to analyze the development trend of logistics industry in China (31 provinces and municipalities directly under the central government) and the eastern, central and western regions, and compare the differences of the national and related regional logistics industry. At the same time, the thesis establishes the "logistics industry-economy-transportation infrastructure" compound system, and uses the theory of synergetics to study the relevant coordination degree in the east, middle and west regions of our country.Second, to build regional logistics competition and support two-dimensional evaluation index system. Combined with principal component analysis and K-means clustering analysis to classify 31 provinces (municipalities) in China into high-middle-low competition and support clustering matrix, It can clearly describe the 31 provinces (municipalities) position in the matrix in the2011and 2015, And provide the theoretical basis for the improvement of regional logistics during the 13th Five-Year Plan period.Third, we analyze the inputs and outputs data of the logistics industry of China's 31 provinces (municipalities) in 2010 ? 2014 through date envelopment analysis method(DEA).It can get technical efficiency,pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency of logistics industry. We can get the logistics technology frontier situation of the provinces (municipalities) too. Taking into account the different external environment and luck of the provinces (municipalities) ,we exclude the impact of environmental factors and random factors through stochastic Frontier analysis method(SFA) . It can get the finally efficiency values of the province (municipalities) and Region about Logistics.it may avoid underestimating or overestimating efficiency values because of the impact of environmental factors and random factors. We can carry out efficiency evaluation of the province (municipalities) and regional logistics industry more accurately.Fourth, when companies use a number of input and output indexes to evaluate efficiency, the indexes are not equal, Therefore, the different indexes must be given different weights in the evaluation process. an important index can be given the larger weight, an unimportant index can be given the smaller weight. Weights is an important calibration factors, the reasonable allocation of weights is an important step in the evaluation of efficiency. so we present a comprehensive maximal deviation model in thesis, when maximizing the intra- class deviation of one attribute and attribute average inter-class index deviation among different projects simultaneously,we establish programming model and solve each attribute value weight through existing data. The model is combined with the gray system correlation analysis model and the analytic hierarchy process, It can objectively carry out the regional logistics performance evaluation of a small number of decision-making unit and a double evaluation index.Fifth,regional logistics and regional economic development has a very close relationship, In order to quantitatively analyze the relationship between the two, we select the typical indexes of economy and logistics, and use VAR model and panel data model to study the cointegration and quantification relationship of economy and logistics in eastern, central and western regions and 31 provinces and municipalities,Quantify the extent of its impact, so as to provide theoretical basis for promoting the healthy development.The above research results can help to enrich the evaluation theory of logistics system and provied more scientific evidences for regional logistics development direction.