Social Security,Savings And Economic Growth Theoretical And Empirical Research

The traditional economic theory propose that social security will reduces the precautionary savings motive,resulting in the decline in the savings rate.However,in recent years,China's social security spending scale and coverage have increased significantly,but the savings rate did not fall,the impact and effect of social security on the savings rate still needs to be confirmed,and the expanding social security in China,whether it will drag the economic growth ? This paper needs to explain three questions:(1)What is the impact of the establishment of social security and changes in expenditure on savings?(2)Analysis of social security will drag or push on economic growth?(3)To analyze the impact of retired delay policy,and its infulences on savings and economic growth.Through the study,the conclusions of this paper can be summarized as the following aspects:Firstly,analyzed some of the representative countries of the social security system reform,and including China's social security system problems and reform and other aspects.Through the world economic data and the Chinese provincial economic data,a descriptive analysis of the relationship between social security,saving rates and growth.The social security system is the establishment of treatment-oriented(DB),mixed multi-pillar of the social security system,and the level of social security development and economic development level is quiet.From the perspective of China's social security development,China has established a relatively complete social security system,and coverage has been greatly improved,but the source of social security funds is still relatively unitary,social security legal system and provisions are incompleted,and need to strengthen the management of social security funds,enhance the social fund's ability to yield.Secondly,the social security of ‘robbing the rich and poor' function is still poor,economically developed areas,income and high income families often enjoy a higher level of social security.In addition,social security expenditure and economic growth rate is positively related to the macroeconomic also did not play a ‘regulator' role,and China's social security expenditure accounted for less than 8% of GDP,while the European developed countries in the general level of 20% about.Finally,through descriptive analysis,it is found that China's savings rate does not fall in the same way.as China's social security penetration rate and social security expenditure increase as a proportion of GDP,while the savings rate in most countries is declining.Using macro data,including panel data from 34 OECD countries from 1990 to 2013 and panel data for China's provinces in 2003 to 2013,to analyze the impact of social security on savings and whether China's social security will drag the economy increase.The micro-survey data of CFPS 2010,2010 and 2014 were also used to analyze the impact of social security on household savings rates,household cash and savings,savings behavior and household income.The empirical study of OECD data shows that the impact of social security spending on savings rates is significantly negative,indicating that social security can reduce the savings rate,and social security spending can also promote economic growth.In contrast,the increase in the total size of social security spending and the increase in coverage did not reduce the savings rate,but the savings rate rose.And using family-based CFPS micro-data,but also by social security for household cash and savings deposits balance effect is positive.The main reason is that the savings rate brought about by the ‘cognitive effect' and ‘wealth effect' brought by social security is greater than the decrease in the savings rate due to the expected "increase in income".Second,because of some of the shortcomings of our social security system itself,may lead to residents will save more,such as medical expenses need to pay part of the ordinary family is still a huge burden,due to social security more choices to the hospital,Resulting in medical expenses.China's urban population through China's macroeconomic data also increased social security spending and coverage will expand to a certain extent,to promote economic growth.But the proportion of social security spending in GDP is too high this indicator will drag the economic growth rate,so need to maintain Moderate scale and level.And social security for family income will have a positive impact,with social security will promote the promotion of their family income,which may be related to China's social security payments and work linked.In addition,savings behavior will also affect the family's income,willing to save the family has a higher level of household income.Through the above analysis,it is proposed to carry out occupational differential delay policy reform,using Overlapping Generation Model(OLG),to analyze the professional differential delay retirement policy implementation may be on the savings and economic growth and other economic factors,and the resulting effects were made and the data were estimated.From the model estimates,delayed retirement increases the total labor supply and promotes consumption growth and reduces the savings rate.For the residents,the implementation of the policy does not necessarily have a negative effect on the residents,but also depends on the increase in consumption caused by income and reduce the negative impact of leisure consumption,and points Occupational delay in retirement policy can better take into account the residents' effects,property and other factors.But because of the delay in retirement policy will reduce the capital input coefficient,to a certain extent,will drag on economic growth.The main contribution of this paper can be reflected in the following aspects:A research point of view of the entry point of innovation,by combing the development of foreign social security,and some countries to take the reform measures so that China's social security system and the development of detours.Second,the use of OECD data,China's macroeconomic data and CFPS micro-data more comprehensive on the issue of empirical research.The estimation method adopts the bidirectional fixed effect,the system GMM method,and the method of using the panel Logit model,and considers the social security system of ‘fragmented'in our country,and makes an empirical study on the impact of different old-age insurance and medical insurance system Research,especially the use of micro-panel data on these issues is still relatively small empirical research.Third,the innovation of the theoretical model,in the model of innovative delay in retirement may bring the labor population growth added to the model,and linked with other factors.In this paper,the employment scheme and the attitude of the different job are not the same,and the employment scheme is designed.The model also uses the microscopic data to simulate and estimate the model.