The Researches On Imbalance Of China International Balance Of Payment And Its Leading Factors

The normalization of imbalances of international balance of payment is a worldwide difficult problem and a new problem of modern world economy,and also a hot issue of economics.Under the background of economic globalization,the world economy is becoming more and more integrated.The external and internal economy throughout the world are integrated,and also intergrated the Economies internal and with each other.A local economic events or crisis(such as the subprime crisis in America in 2008)spreads quickly all over the world.Some countries in the world are in the states of surplus of international balance of payment,while some countries are in the states of deficit,where the outflow and inflow of capital are corresponding to the states of international balance of payment.Emerging economies have high surplus,while developed economies have bigger deficit.The United States is the largest economies in the world,whose GDP accounted for about a quarter of the world.At the same time the United States is also the biggest trade deficit country,whose current account deficit has been above 5% since 2004,the internationally recognized warning line.East Asian countries like Japan and China and the Middle East oil exporter countries have been huge current account surplus in recent years.The distinctive features of China international balance of payment in the world are that the current account and capital-financial account are in the state of a continuous surplus,that is in the structure of "double surplus".In 1987,China emerged the first double surplus.By 2015 China international balance of payment has been in double surplus state for 23 years.Since 1999 to 2011 the state had been for 13 years continuously.China current account surplus was about $0.3 billion in 1987 and increased to $353.2 billion in 2007,which accounts for 10.9% of the GDP.From$94.2 billion in 2007 the capital-financial account surplus jumped to $265.5 billion in2011.Double surplus makes China foreign exchange reserves grown quickly.At the end of the year 2006,China foreign exchange reserves was $1066.3 billion ranked first in the world.And the foreign exchange reserves increased further to $1528.2billion in 2007.In 2014,China foreign exchange reserves was $3843 billion,which are more than double in 2007.China imbalances has been very serious.But during the period of 2012-2015,China imbalances of international balance of payment have been changing newly.Based on the fact of slowing down imbalances of 2012-2015,experts and scholars think of that China international balance of payment will be changing from the double surplus to a development model of current account surplus and capital-financial account deficit.Under the backgrounds of the globalization of economy,the normalization of imbalances of international balance of payment,the overheating of China macro-economy and real estate industry,the doubting of hard landing of bubble economy,the slowing of economic growth,the thesis "Researches on imbalance of China International balance of payment and its leading factors" studies the internal structure influence of China international balance of payment andinfluence of China macro-economy,as well as the Imbalance reasons and the leading factors of China's international balance of payment.The thesis explores the policy path of keeping balance of China international payment.The current problems such as imbalance will be solved utilizing reasonably the external and internal economy policies.And all these are the focuses of the study.Researches on imbalance of China balance of international payment and its leading factors have certain theoretical significance.Samuelson life cycle theory of international balance of payment has generally given life cycle evolution curve.However the real world shows that this theory is limited.Many countries international balance of payment cannot be explained by the life cycle theory.So the researches on international balance of payment can perfect the theory,based on the studies for conditions of international balances of payment of countries under the new situation.The thesis analyzed systemly the structure of international balance of payment,and combined the theory and reality to endow them with the influence of different structural parameters in different levels.This helps us understanding the condition and imbalance reasons of China international balance of payment,studying its leading imbalance factors.And this can undoubtedly provide important theoretical basis for the government to regulate the imbalances of international balance of payment.In recent years,under the world economic imbalances,the enormous external economic imbalance in China is more and more aroused widely focusings both at home and abroad.The practical significance of the thesis lies in clarifying systemly the historical evolution of China international balance of payment after China reform and opening up policy,and clarifying the flow,dynamic change of stock in the first level accounts and its sub-accounts,and finding out the hidden economic rule and the leading factors of imbalances,and ofering the Suggestions for the improved policy.In this paper,the simulatings and forecastings for China international balance of payment has important practical reference value for the government to understand the imbalances in advance and to issue the corresponding policy.All in all,by studying the evolution ruel of China international balance of payment and the leading factors,the thesis investigates furtherly the reasons,the potential risk,the income and cost,and explores the moudel of China international balance of payment and foreign exchange system suitable for China.And further more this will has not only the certain theoretical value for the perfecting and developing and enriching theory of China international balance of payment,but also the more important practical significance for internal and external economy in China.In the thesis,the studying contents include mainly the analysis of Samuelson life cycle theory and its realistic condition and correction,the researches on leading parameters and Influence of structure of China international balance of payment,the empirical analysis on the leading parameters and imbalance reasons influenced by China macro-economy,the researches on the economic mathematical models and forcasting on China international balance of payment and macro-economy.The first part(chapter 1,2,3)have summarized both domestic and foreign the various theories,octrines,schools,dynamics,and have classified and analyzed the theories and research results of domestic and foreign data to the economicglobalization,the global economic imbalances,the international debt,the currency devaluation,the world economic recession,the imbalances of China international balance of payment,and all these as the theoretical basis of research subject.The part has studied the theory of Samuelson life cycle,and made an empirical analysis on the difference between reality and theory,and put forward to a more realistic life cycle evolution curve of international balance of payment.The second part(chapter 4)researches the structures of China international balance of payment and its leading parameters.That is structure status and leading influence parameters.The third part(chapter 5)includes the researches on leading parameters of China macro-economy affecting international balance of payment,the empirical analysis on the reasons of imbalances in China.By analyzing the historical data of China macro-economy and international balance of payment,we find out that parameters affecting more to China international balance of payment are macro-economic parameters.Reality empirical analysis confirms the real reasons of imbalances of China international balance of payment.The comprehensive analysis has been down on the curve inflection points of China real estate industry,housing prices,investment in fixed assets,GDP growth and China international balace of payment.The fourth part(chapter 6,7)is about the researches on mathematical models and forecasting for China international balance of payments and macro-economic.The economic mathematics models of double variables and simultaneous equation are set up to analyze the correlation,contrast and metering of accounts at all levels of China international balance of payment and leading parameters of macro-economic,and to simulate in recent years,and to forecast in the future China international balance of payment and macro-economic,and to put forward the policy suggestions.With real empirical analysis the thesis studies Samuelson's life cycle theory and the differences of reality and theory,and offers the conformity and reality improved Samuelson life cycle curve of international balance of payment.With the analogy and screening method the thesis analyzes the structure of China international balance of payment and the impact of macro-economic;Through analog filtering we get leading parameters correlated more,contributed more,affected obvious;The analyzings of correlation,comparative,econometric and simulation and forecastings are made Using bivariate model and simultaneous equation model established.Through the studying the imbalances of China international balance of payment and the leading factors,the thesis has obtained innovative research results and conclusions with certain theoretical significance and practical value.(1)The Samuelson life cycle theory of international balance of spayment are analyzed deeply and corrected.After studying Samuelson life cycle theory,the thesis matches the theory with the reality and the departure by empirical analyzing and modifying,and puts forward the five-stages general evolution pattern of international balance of payment,and defines each phase for each status of the accounts.On the premise of general pattern,the thesis puts forward the developed country model,four Asian tigers model,resource model,no resource model,lagging development model.(2)studied the structure of China international balance of payment and the influence of leading parameters.Such as the concepts of Macro-economic nominal GDP and real GDPz to analyze China international balance of payment the price increasing has been considered of in real data in the paper,and not in nominal data,the analyzing shows that the nominal data is distort,and the real data is more reasonable.By analyzing of a large amount of data,we find out the leading parameters from dozens of all levels of account,and conclude that the current account leading parameters are real goods Hz,real goods credit side HDz,real goods debit side HJz,the capital-financial account leading parameters are short-term loans Dz and its credit DDz,debit DJz and loan-savings-investment DCTz(short-term loans,savings and investment),the data before 2000 are much smaller and steadier and China international balance of payment is basically balanced,but after 2001 the curve increased sharply,international balance of payment changed into imbalances,and the unbalanced tendency is more and more serious.This phenomenon coincided with the condition of China realty industry that is to cut interest rates 7 times in 1999,realty enterprises are no more ban to listed in 2001,house prices skyrocketing in 2003 by land auction,4trillion economic stimulus policies in 2008.(3)The thesis finds out the leading macro-economic parameters affecting on international balance of payment based on the studying of China macro-economy parameters and the evolution rule.The analysis of the influence of macro-economic parameter for the Net China international balance of payment CKA shows that the leading macro-economic parameters affecting more are the GDP growth,consumption growth,real estate investment in fixed assets FG,increments of real estate investment in fixed assets increment ?LLFG,increment of GDP increment ?LLGDP,and the correlation between them is very close.Leading macro-economic parameters affecting more to current account are GDP growth,consumption growth,savings increment ?SCK,purchasing managers' index PMI of manufacturing,foreign direct investment FDI,increments of real estate investment in fixed assets increment ?LLFG,increments of fixed assets investment in manufacturing ?LLZG,increment of GDP increment?LLGDP,the correlation between them is very close.Leading macro-economic parameters affecting more to capital-financial account are increment of consumption increments ?LLXF,increments of house prices ?LLFJ,increments of real estate investment in fixed assets ?LLFG,increments of fixed assets in manufacturing?LLZG,GDP increments ?LLGDP,the correlation between them is also very close.Analyzing the “inflection points” of China real estate industry,macro-economic GDP and China international balance of payment shows that the imbalances reasons of China international balance of payment are the overheating realty,the high land prices and the overheating macro-economic such as GDP etc.Analyzing the correlation between national macro-economic regulation-control and the inflection points of macro-economy and international balance of payment shows that some macro-control measures are not appropriate such as the realty auction in 2003 and 4trillion economic stimulus policies in 2008,and the measures are fatal factors to the skyrocketing prices of the land and house,the macro-economy overheating and China international balance of payments imbalances.At the same time,many Chinese economic phenomenons are going against to the economic laws.(4)Based on the bivariate model and simultaneous equation model the quantitative analyzing,simulating and forecasting have been down for the imbalances of China international balance of payment and influence of macro-economic,and also puting forward some policy recommendations.In data and curves of the correlation between all levels account from China international balance of payment structure and core account,choose the closely related one to make bivariate model analysis,it is concluded 6 bivariate model functions of the current account and 8 functions of capital-financial account,all of their correlation coefficients are above 0.5,goodness-of-fit factor are above 0.2,or even 0.8 and 0.9,in another word,they are closely related.In the same way,we got more than 20 functions of bivariate correlation model in the macro-economy with the current account and the capital-financial account,correlation coefficient are both above 0.5,goodness-of-fit factor are above 0.2,and even larger,that proven the closeness of their correlation,and correctness of analysis.By established simultaneous equation model for each macro-economic parameters and core account we got several macro-economic parameters which closely related with international balance of payment,verified the accuracy of the bivariate model,fond out the same results with the bivariate model.Using the macro-economic parameters and the bivariate model of China international balance of payment and simultaneous equation model,China international balance of payment and macro-economic operation are simulated in the past,the results shows that during 2003-2011 the main imbalances reasons of China international balance of payment are skyrocketing housing prices,realty investment overheating.If the effect of land auction in 2004 and 4 trillion economic stimulus policy in 2009 can be put off,in other words after off-realty process,China international balance of payment can be in balanced condition.The forecasting for six years based on the macro-economic parameters and the bivariate model and simultaneous equation model shows that to keep balance in future(China 13 th five-years plan)we need to reduce the statue of realty in GDP growth,keep manufacturing's contribution to GDP growth smooth reduce,improve contribution of transportation and consumption,reduce GDP growth above 6%.The Main policy Suggestions to the long time imbalances of China international balance of payment are to reduce the dominance of realty in macro-economic,to make their contribution to the GDP growth rate below 2%,to accelerate the development of transportation industry,and make them taken the status of realty,reducing their contribution to GDP growth more than 2%,keep manufacturing stable and have a slight decline,reducing their contribution to GDP growth rate above 2%,encourage consumption,make their contribution to GDP growth around 7%,Slow down GDP growth,reducing GDP growth rate from 5.5% to 7%.