| Since the reform and opening up to the outside world,Chinese economic is continuing to develop and improve.In adherence to the principle of "one country,two systems",economic and trade exchanges and capital flows is closer in Chinese mainland,Hong Kong,Macau and Taiwan,the degree of integration of the economy and capital gets further development,and the economic exchange and cooperation has been raised to the level of system construction.At the same time,the defect that four currencies coexist in Chinese mainland,Hong Kong,Macau and Taiwan is exposed gradually: on the one hand,trade settlement and capital flows within the region need to currency exchange,thus increasing the costs,reducing the yield and efficiency of capital flow of trade,and further development of regional trade liberalization and regional economic integration is largely limited;on the other hand,because of the differences of the exchange rate system arrangement,the risk of exchange rate fluctuations weakens the economic ability to cope with external shocks.The defect that four currencies coexist in Chinese mainland,Hong Kong,Macau and Taiwan originats from institutional defects,price signals disorders and the factors such as the impact of international hot money,and this kind of endogenous instability will cause the regional financial system instability.Under the background of economic and financial globalization,because of the development of economies imbalance and the limited of the economic ability of a single country or region,the region just relys on the international monetary fund(IMF),the World Bank(World Bank)and the external assistance of developed countries to get rid of the influence of the financial crisis is not enough,regional monetary authorities have gradually realized the significance of regional monetary cooperation.RMB internationalization strategy implementation creates a new opportunity and conditions for regional monetary cooperation.After the year of 2005,exchange rate system reform,the signe of bilateral currency swap agreements,the development of Hong Kong's renminbi offshore market,the promotion of offshore yuan RMB direct trade and cross-border investment,implement via Shanghai port and recent series of strategic measures such as the renminbi to join the SDR,and at the same time,in the face of the impact of the global financial crisis,China has taken to keep the currency stable response,greatly improve the credibility of the yuan in the world,and for the advancement of RMB internationalization of the credibility of laid a good foundation and economic foundation.RMB internationalization and regional monetary cooperation complement each other,promote each other.Combine the internationalisation of the renminbi and regional monetary cooperation issues analysis,through into the endogenous constraint is the optimal decision analysis on both sides of the monetary cooperation,it is not only proactive,at the same time,and has important practical significance and policy meaning.According to this train of thought,this paper mainly studies four questions:(1)What is the present situation of the regional monetary cooperation in Chinese mainland,Hong Kong,Macau and and Taiwan;(2)How does the process of RMB internationalization affects the regional monetary cooperation;(3)Is economic fundamentals amony Chinese mainland,Hong Kong,Macau and Taiwan meets the conditions of monetary cooperation;(4)how does the region choses the monetary cooperation mode,path.Based on the optimum currency area theory,on the basis of combing the existing research literature,this paper comprehensive uses of statistical analysis,empirical analysis and other methods of modern economics,the internationalisation of the renminbi problems with four to monetary cooperation between the two sides in combination with research,closely around our country's actual conditions,pay attention to the interpretability of theory,the rationality of the thinking strategies,puts forward the cross-straits four monetary cooperation mode and path.In this paper,we study the following three conclusions:(a)By analyzing the historical process of monetary cooperation amony Chinese mainland,Hong Kong,Macau and and Taiwan,the monetary cooperation just is the primary level,namely monetary cooperation is consultation,coordination and mutual action phase.Secondly,on the basis of a single standard of the optimum currency area theory,this article selects the economic development level,economic integration,financial integration,and fiscal policy convergence four,and analyzs the convergence and differences on every level to study the economic fundamentals of the region monetary cooperation.It is concluded that,in the economic development level,economic integration and financial policy convergence analysis of monetary cooperation,and the cost is relatively low,but from the aspect of financial integration analysis,the cost of the monetary cooperation is relatively high,but the development trend analysis from four aspects,economies in four aspects of present dynamic convergence trend of convergence.On this basis,the article further analysises the interaction mechanism between the RMB internationalization and the monetary cooperation;On the one hand,RMB internationalization process can effectively eliminate the risk of Currency mismatch amony Chinese mainland,Hong Kong,Macau and Taiwan,reduce the transaction costs,increase the degree of regional economic integration and financial integration,improve the economic impact of symmetry,reduce the cost of regional monetary cooperation,and promote regional monetary cooperation.At the same time,the internationalisation of the renminbi would improve the international status,strengthen the renminbi in regional influence,and make the area to be dominant currency.The regional monetary cooperation amony Chinese mainland,Hong Kong,Macau and Taiwan not only provides experience for the internationalisation of RMB,also laids the economic foundation of RMB internationalization.Therefore,relative to the current reality of economic foundation,the region monetary cooperation lags,it is necessary to further strengthen the regional monetary cooperation.(b)On the basis of above real statistical analysis,this article further empirical research on both sides of the four economic feasibility of monetary cooperation.On the one hand,this paper empirically synchronicity the economic cycle,and carries on the decomposition of economic fluctuation,empirical research on four types of symmetry of economic shocks.On both sides of the four economies in a common trend in the long run,the common cycle in the short term,the higher the degree of economic integration,therefore,the paper has enough reason to believe that the economic cycle has the synchronicity,comply with the conditions for the basis of constructing the optimal currency area;the economic fluctuation by structural vector autoregression model decomposition,analysis of the symmetry of economic shocks,in terms of monetary shocks,on both sides of the four economies have symmetry,in external shocks,supply shocks and demand shocks do not yet have symmetry,as a result,the economies and the economic impact has the incomplete symmetry,has certain asymmetry,on both sides of the four economic circle temporarily is not suitable for constructing the optimal currency area;On the other hand,the symmetry of economic shocks as standard of exogenous,based on historical data test to judge the feasibility of the regional monetary cooperation,although this method helps to clear the current monetary cooperation and the economic basis,but this method ignores the endogenous between measures and monetary union,when the current national economic correlation was positively correlation with trade integration,is a country before joining the optimal currency area does not meet the join the optimal currency area criteria,but its after joining can promote its meet the standards(Frankel and Rose,1998).Based on this,on the basis of above analysis,this paper empirically the mainland and Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan regions exists endogenous monetary cooperation.Study,mainland China and Hong Kong and Macao region exists the optimum currency area criteria of endogenous mechanism,with the deepening of economic integration between Hong Kong and the economic cycle will continue to improve convergence degree,is suitable for forming optimum currency areas,and in Taiwan and mainland China does not exist the optimal currency area of endogenous mechanism,this stage is not suitable to form the optimal currency area.To sum up,in the context of the internationalisation of the renminbi,the Chinese mainland,Hong Kong and Macao region can support to strengthen monetary cooperation economic foundation,and there is a big difference with other areas in Taiwan,the current strengthen monetary cooperation is bigger,the cost of cross-strait cooperation in the currency in which four should be in stages and layers.(c)Based on the above research,this paper then studies the regional monetary cooperation mode.On the one hand,on the current regional monetary cooperation pattern based on the analysis,based on the theory of monetary network externalities and the conversion cost,build a simple mathematical model,analyses the welfare effects of different monetary cooperation modes,the study concluded that,in the process of monetary cooperation process,adopting a common currency welfare level significantly greater than the current level of the welfare of the two currencies,which should be taken to strengthen monetary cooperation,build a monetary union,the common currency.In terms of the choice of a common currency,from the perspective of minimizing costs,because money "inertia",the first to use the money get the first-mover advantage,and is currently used in the circulation of money flow is not use money has a bigger circulation network,so the former as a common currency which is creating a new currency has a higher level of benefits,so monetary cooperation should choose a now use,and use many users as the core of the regional monetary cooperation of currencies;,on the other hand,although the current is not yet fully convertible,but consider the RMB internationalization process is accelerating,to become the leading regional currency created the potential possibility,based on this,this paper empirical research on the renminbi in Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan the dynamic role of exchange rate arrangements,study,the RMB exchange rate arrangement of Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan in the impact is more significant,means of recessive functions of monetary anchor currency,the yuan is gradually become a region of Hong Kong,macau,Taiwan and the dominant currency.So even though the yuan is not yet fully convertible,it is to be on both sides of the four official currency anchor,but under the background of RMB internationalization,the yuan exchange rate arrangement from Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan's dynamic role has become increasingly apparent,core currency,the yuan is gradually becoming a regional in cross-strait monetary cooperation conducted by four to the implementation of the RMB is feasible.The innovation of this paper is mainly reflected in the following three aspects:(a)In terms of research Angle of view,the existing literature,the study of cross-strait cooperation in the currency in which four mainly based on the theory of optimum currency areas,analyze the real economic basis Hong Kong,macau,Taiwan and,to judge the economic feasibility of monetary cooperation and on this basis,draw lessons from the international successful experience,regional monetary cooperation research on both sides of the four monetary cooperation model and route choice problem,less attention to the internationalisation of the renminbi dynamic effect of cross-strait cooperation in the currency in which four,however,the currency internationalization and regional monetary cooperation both complement each other and promote each other.Yuan international created may become the dominant currency into RMB,and the international monetary cooperation with Hong Kong,macau,Taiwan and the new opportunities and conditions,this paper combine the internationalisation of the renminbi and regional monetary cooperation issues analysis,by incorporating endogenous constraints of dynamic optimal decision analysis,study four to monetary cooperation between the two sides,for cross-strait monetary cooperation mode and path selection provides a new research direction.(a)in terms of research Angle of view,the existing literature,the study of cross-strait cooperation in the currency in which four mainly based on the theory of optimum currency areas,analyze the real economic basis Hong Kong,macau,Taiwan and,to judge the economic feasibility of monetary cooperation and on this basis,draw lessons from the international successful experience,regional monetary cooperation research on both sides of the four monetary cooperation model and route choice problem,less attention to the internationalisation of the renminbi dynamic effect of cross-strait cooperation in the currency in which four,however,the currency internationalization and regional monetary cooperation both complement each other and promote each other.Yuan international created may become the dominant currency into RMB,and the international monetary cooperation with Hong Kong,macau,Taiwan and the new opportunities and conditions,this paper combine the internationalisation of the renminbi and regional monetary cooperation issues analysis,by incorporating endogenous constraints of dynamic optimal decision analysis,study four to monetary cooperation between the two sides,for cross-strait monetary cooperation mode and path selection provides a new research direction.(b)The research content method,based on the existing literature research,supplement and perfect,mainly reflected in the following three aspects: first,the existing literature in general from the dimension of a separate analysis of the economic feasibility of cross-strait cooperation in the currency in which four,reduces the research conclusion robustness,this paper symmetry of economic shocks from the static state and dynamic binding test two dimensions were analyzed,and the comprehensive to judge the economic feasibility of cross-strait cooperation in the currency in which four makes up for the deficiency in the past research;Second,in the analysis of the economic circle of Hong Kong,macau,Taiwan and the economic fundamentals,this paper USES the economic cycle synchronization with the symmetry of economic shocks two core indicators,comprehensively deepen analysis economic circle of Hong Kong,macau,Taiwan and the economic fundamentals;Third,in this paper,combining with the analysis of the problem of RMB internationalization and regional monetary cooperation,the feasibility of the dynamic analysis of the RMB currency building,enriched the research content.(c)In terms of research method,considering the system change in economic development played a major role in Hong Kong,macau,Taiwan,exist in the process of economic development in Hong Kong,macau,Taiwan and the structural changes,the traditional fixed parameter model analysis can't reflect the time-varying effect of such economic structure,fixed parameter estimates only reflect the average during the study sample,can't reflect the dynamic change,and time-varying parameters will research method has better applicability and persuasive.Therefore,in the empirical research on the feasibility of constructing the yuan currency,Hong Kong,macau,Taiwan and the paper options have time-varying parameter state space model,this paper made up for the inadequacy of past research on the empirical method. |
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