Research On China-ASEAN Monetary Cooperation

The Asian financial turmoil led by Thailand in 1997 and the global financial crisis initiated by the US subprime mortgage crisis in 2008 made East Asian countries realize the importance of monetary cooperation.With the successful establishment of the euro zone,other regions began to follow suit,hoping to resist the financial crisis through monetary cooperation.Among them,the establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area has brought closer ties among countries in the region.The signing of the Chiang Mai Initiative and the development of the Chiang Mai Initiative from bilateralization to multilateralization show that the pace of China-ASEAN monetary cooperation is gradually accelerating.Therefore,on this background and the basis of monetary cooperation,it is forward-looking to study whether China-ASEAN can establish an optimal monetary area to make monetary cooperation move to a new stage.This paper firstly describes the current situation of China-ASEAN monetary cooperation,the analysis shows that the scale of bilateral currency swaps in China-ASEAN region has been expanded and a larger foreign exchange reserve pool has been established;secondly,based on the theory of optimal monetary area,this paper systematically analyses the economic basis of China-ASEAN monetary cooperation,and finds that:China-ASEAN has insufficient liquidity of elements,low integration of financial markets,high degree of economic openness,diversification of products,similarity of inflation and synchronization of economic cycle,overall,China-ASEAN monetary cooperation already has a certain economic foundation;furthermore,from the perspective of symmetry of economic shocks,this paper selects GDP growth rate and inflation rate measured by GDP deflation index in 11 countries of China-ASEAN from 1994 to 2017 as two indicators,and makes an empirical analysis using SVAR model,the results show that:it is difficult for the whole region of China-ASEAN to establish a unified optimal currency area,among them,Malaysia,Indonesia,Philippines and Thailand have better symmetry of economic shocks,the symmetry of economic shocks between China and ASEAN countries is poor;finally,based on the above conclusions,the corresponding suggestions are put forward.