Global Trade Network Research And Its Enlightenment To China's Geographical Strategy

Trade liberalization and global networking are the major manifestations of post-war economic globalization,Especially since the 1980 s,The proliferation of technology brought about by multinational corporations has accelerated the development of trade networks worldwide.at the same time,The bipolar system of the old world economy gradually evolved into a multipolar pattern.Emerging economies(China as the representative)have achieved the rise of groups,Constantly impacting and reshaping the pattern of global trade development.on the other hand,the rise of trade protectionism and populism that cause the retrogression of Globalization,The global economic and trade governance has run into trouble.And geopolitical factors which including geography,culture and system have increased the uncertainty of the global trade pattern.China,as one of the largest emerging economies,it's rapid rise can not be separated from the opportunities offered by economic globalization.Meanwhile,We are also demonstrating the role that the major powers should play in the global governance of international trade and the provision of public goods.All of these provide a good inspiration for the implementation of "the Belt and Road Initiative" and the study of China's geostrategic strategy.In order to explore the complex relationship between trade and geography,This thesis combines multidisciplinary theories,methods and achievements,and try to build a theoretical framework based on the global trade network which under the common influence of economy,geography and system,and explores the evolution pattern of global trade network.Then,focus on China and the "Belt and Road Initiative",We study in depth the changing process of China's trade product structure and regional structure.Full-text seven chapters: The first,second chapter is the introduction and related theories and frameworks,which is the theoretical basis of this thesis.The empirical part includes the third to the fifth chapter,which mainly includes two parts: firstly,Using global bilateral trade data from 1985 to 2015,we build a social network model,which depicts the spatial pattern and evolution of the global trading network,trading community and market diversification.We reveal the changes in the division of labor in the global trade industry hrough the analysis of the differences in the spatial heterogeneity of the four types of industries:primary products,labor intensive,capital intensive and technology intensive;Secondly,we study the evolution of the geographical structure of China's trade products in three periods: early,mid-term and post-crisis stage,and Analyze the International Competitiveness of Chinese Trade Products,through comparative analysis RCA index of various products and major economies.Finally,it relevant enlightenments and suggestions based on "the Belt and Road Initiative".The main conclusions are as follow:(1)Geopolitical factors based on geographical space for the impact of international trade can not be ignored,This effect is especially evident in the integration of trade blocs and regional trade.In a sense,Trade among nations is a product under the mutual impact of economic,geopolitical and institutional.Among them,economic factor is intrinsic motivation,geographical factor is the foundation,Institutional policies play a safeguard role.Geoeconomic competition and cooperation have become the mainstream forms of the current international trade network.(2)With the deepening of economic globalization,The scale of global trade is expanding,Trade network evolve from single to complex,and from "one superpower and many powers" to "multi-polarized".Especially after 2000,a group of emerging countries represented by BRICS are rising simultaneously,they show powerful supply and demand ability,and market diversification layout,which accelerate the evolution and reconstruction of the global trade pattern.China's performance in the aftermath of the financial crisis is the most noticeable.It led the "Asia-Africa-Latin America community" has become the most rapidly developing trade group in the "tripartite confrontation" pattern.However,the multipolarization of global trade network don't fundamentally change the original "core-edge" structure,only trade center of gravity and coverage have been greatly adjusted and expanded.(3)On the whole,The cumulative probability distribution of the trade network degree of the four types of products shows a clear power law distribution,but the characteristics of each network and the evolution process are different.It show a rule:The transfer path of trade industry,which has been transferred from the developed countries to the emerging economies and the developing countries' in the early stages of industrialization,is from primary and labor intensive to capital intensive and then to technology intensive.To a certain extent,it reflects the changes in the global value chain division.(4)Over the past 30 years,China's trade products have been greatly adjusted,and its trade market has also expanded rapidly.China has become one of the most important buyers of primary products,and its diversification of energy security pattern initially revealed.Labor-intensive and capital-intensive industries have become the leading industries in China's foreign trade,whose export RCA index show a strong international comparative advantage;Although China has risen sharply in its trade network of technology-intensive products,its international competitiveness is still at a relatively low level.Among the four types of product trade,China enjoys strongcomplementarities with emerging markets along "the Belt and Road",which is conducive to the smooth progress of international capacity cooperation.(5)With China's central role in the four types of product trade networks becoming increasingly prominent,the global trade pattern presents a "double circulation" mode,China plays a pivotal role in this model.Two "circulation" showed a parallel trend,which reflects the strategic connection and the complementary advantages of parallel relations between the old and the new system.The trajectory of China's foreign trade center of gravity shows a shift from "westward" and "southward." This reflects the important role of trade for the first "The Belt and Road" construction.The fierce game between China,the United States and Germany in the competition for trade markets in Central Asia,the Middle East and Africa,which indicates that the great challenge of "The Belt and Road".China should be committed to the consolidation and development economic and trade relations with countries along "the Belt and Road ",and create a win-win community of interests and a community of destiny.