Economic Impact Of Climate Change On Agriculture In Bangladesh

Agriculture sector is the backbone of national economy in Bangladesh,which contributes almost 17 percent to national GDP and creates employment for about 45 percent of total labor force in the country that supports 70 percent for their nourishment.This sector plays an inevitable contribution to ensure the food security status and overall economic growth,eradication of poverty and structural changes in economy towards industrialization.Livelihood of the people and overall economy depend on agricultural production and farm income.Almost 75 percent population of Bangladesh are living in rural areas and most of them are dependent on agricultural sector.Climatic risks and natural hazards are common in Bangladesh which makes it a very vulnerable countries in the world.Increase in severity and frequency of floods,hails,droughts,variation in precipitation and other events due to climate change have reduced livelihoods of farmers in developing countries.The agricultural sector in Bangladesh is mainly faced by the massive floods and cyclones on a regular basis that devastated the overall economy and agricultural crops.A rapid growth in farming sector supports the poverty reduction and may provide livelihood to the farmers.Despite the agricultural sector contributes the overall economy of Bangladesh,the country's farming sector is still under developed.This thesis shed more light on the vulnerabilities of the agriculture sector to climate change by taking a holistic approach that considers the impact of climate change on overall crop farming in the country rather than concentrating on the yield of a particular crop.The approach in this research considered both farmers' net income per hectare and farmland values from the farming sectors,taking into also consideration both the gains and losses due to climate change impacts.The study was based on primary as well as secondary data collected from the seven agroecological zones of Bangladesh namely Tista Meander Floodplain,Old Brahmaputra Floodplain,High Ganges River Floodplain,Young Meghna Estuarine Floodplain,Old Meghna Estuarine Floodplain,Eastern Surma-Kushiyara Floodplain and Northern & Eastern Hills.The primary data were collected using surveyed questionnaires.Secondary data(46 years of monthly average temperature and rainfall data)were collected from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department.In order to assess the impacts of climate change on farmers' net income and farmland values,Ricardian regression model was utilized.This study also identifies farmers' perception about climate change and their past adaptation behavior and future adaptation plans.Findings of the study revealed that farmers' net crop income are affected more by the changes in temperature than the rainfall.A positive effect of temperature rise on net crop income was observed for the farms located in the areas having sufficient irrigation facilities.Agricultural crop production is robust to higher temperatures.Monsoon seasons are not affected by higher temperatures.Higher temperatures do affect the non-monsoon season of dryland farms.The three AOGCMs scenarios predicted that net income is expected to increase from US$9 to US$90 per hectare in the country.On the other hand,the findings of the impact of climate change on farmland values revealed that farmland values are sensitive both in temperature and rainfall.Increased temperature decreases the land values while increase in rainfall increases the farmland values.Findings also implied that low land is highly vulnerable to climate change than the highland.Selected Global Climate Models predict that global warming would have a significant negative impact on land values in Bangladesh.The evaluation of farmers' knowledge of climate change and adaptation behavior imply that farmers are proactive in using various adaptation measures including more use of irrigation,crop diversification,integrated farming systems,conversion of farmland to non-farm land uses etc.Findings of the above studies suggest that government and policy makers should formulate and design sustainable adaptation policies for the maintenance of crop productivity and farmland values taking the current and anticipated climate change impacts into consideration.Strengthening agricultural extension systems and enterprise diversification activities,development of various farming technologies and new cultivars,generating off-farm employment activities and formulating policy for initiating crop insurance scheme are the necessary measures to mitigate the climatic risks in the context of climate change.The meteorological department should provide prior information regarding extreme climatic events that can protect the rural farm households from the adverse possessions of natural disasters.