| Petroleum is one of the most important industrial raw materials in the world.In this complete petrochemical industry chain system,fluctuations of product prices at any stage will affect the supply and demand of other products within the industry chain in space and time,and thus affect product prices.In the spatial dimension,scholars have conducted a lot of studies on the spatial transmission of price fluctuations of petrochemical products in different regions and in different stages of industry chain.In the time dimension,the most complicated place of price fluctuation transmission is to characterize the multi-time attribute of the transmission process.The multi-time attribute of product price fluctuations refers to the fact that the price fluctuation transmission of petrochemical industry chain products in different periods has periodical characteristics.The second is that the price fluctuation relationship between petrochemical products changes dynamically at each moment.This multi-time attribute price fluctuation transmission relationship intertwined with stage and dynamic is the focus and difficulty of scholars’ studiesBased on the industry chain price transmission theory,factor endowment theory,crude oil market "one pool law" theory and dynamic equilibrium "cobweb model" theory,this study selects crude oil,naphtha,ethylene and styrene industry chain as the research object,selects Europe,the United States,China,the Middle East,Southeast Asia,Japan and South Korea as the research market,selects 22 kinds of petrochemical products.The spatial and temporal transmission effects of petrochemical product price fluctuations are studied.The main work and innovation are reflected in the following aspects:(1)This study defines and calculates the multi-time attribute of the price fluctuation transmission of petrochemical industry chain products.In view of the "phased" feature in the multi-time attribute of price changes of petrochemical products,this study first used the Perron-Yabu test to divide the structural breakpoints of 22 petrochemical product price series,and the entire data set was broken by three structures.Subsequently,by calculating the cross-correlation between the products in different stages,this study obtained the order of the leading and lagging relationship between the prices of petrochemical industry chain products.(2)This study constructs the spatial transmission model and spatial transmission network model of petrochemical industry chain product price fluctuations.Then it finds and verifies that there is an imbalance in the transmission of single petrochemical product price fluctuation transmission between regions and between industrial chain stages.This study uses the BEKK-GARCH method to calculate the price fluctuation overflow relationship between each petrochemical product in four different stages.After analyzing the one-to-one relationship between the prices of petrochemical products through the BEKK-GARCH method,it introduces network analysis method to construct a spatial network model of price fluctuation transmission of petrochemical products,and selects network indicators to analyze individual petrochemical products.(3)This study constructs a temporal-space transmission model of price fluctuations in petrochemical industry chain products prices and solve the problem of "dynamics" in price temporal-space transmission.The results find the price fluctuations of different petrochemical products in space and time transmission law.This study simulated 22 petrochemical products how to carry out the dynamic transmission of space and time to the entire market when the price fluctuation occurs under the impact,and how it changes dynamically at different moments in different time stages.Finally,this study uses a piece of data after the sample period as the verification period to conduct the robustness test.Based on the above analysis,corresponding suggestions are put forward.It is proposed to increase the reserves of China’s petrochemical raw materials,promote the diversity of naphtha refining sources.Investors should pay attention to the important dates of price fluctuations and increase the preparation for risks and opportunities brought by price fluctuations. |
PDF Full Text Request