Research On Complex Supply Chain Network Evolution And Risk Control

With the deepening of globalization,more and more enterprises are involved in the supply chain network,and the structure is becoming more and more complex.The current market is characterized by turbulence and uncertainty.In order to gain competitive advantages in the uncertain business environment,the node enterprises in the supply chain network must improve their robustness to reduce risks through creating an elastic supply chain.In the past,the research on supply chain network is mostly based on the micro specific behavior of the network,while the research on supply chain risk is mostly based on the qualitative research from the perspective of management and game theory.As research methods and tools are limited,so it is impossible to systematically explore the strategies to solve the supply chain network risk.It is also not suitable to study the risk control of supply chain network by the way of reappearance of risk.Using the theory of complex network modeling can reveal the overall macro properties,simulate and study the dynamic evolution process of supply chain network,which has practical value for the optimal design and management of supply chain network.With the regional integration of Yangtze River Delta and other regions rising to the national development strategy,building a weighted supply chain network based on the local world theory of geographic location information can effectively improve the supply-demand service level between node enterprises in the region,and promote regional trade.However,the booming supply chain network is also accompanied by some internal and external risks,so it is necessary to identify and control risks of the regional supply chain network,which will have important practical significance for the sound development of regional supply chain network economy.With the help of computer science and complex network theory,the stability,robustness,risk propagation control of supply chain network can be quantitatively analyzed,and an effective solution to the vulnerability of supply chain network can be proposed.Based on the regional trade priority characteristic of the supply chain network,a local world model is established to carry out a dynamic evolution of the supply chain,which can improve the structural robustness of the network and guide the optimal design of supply chain network structure.In view of the fact that the supply chain network increases the vulnerability of interference or interruption,the complex network analysis and simulation attack technology are used to discover the key node enterprises and important supply-demand relationship in the network,so as to protect them in advance to improve the performance robustness of supply chain network.For the supply chain enterprise nodes with load capacity,the new load-capacity model and reasonable load balancing methods can be used to prevent the cascading failure reaction after the network is attacked by emergencies.The research on immune strategy of supply chain network risk propagation can also improve the robustness of network structure and control the main propagation path of risk.The methods and strategies presented in this paper will help decision-makers identify the risk of supply chain network and determine the potential paths of risk propagation,so as to effectively control the risk and propagation of supply chain network and improve the profits of supply chain enterprises.The main research work of this paper is as follows:1.Research and optimize the dynamic evolution model of complex supply chain network in the local world,so that the supply chain network can evolve more reasonably and enterprises can cooperate more easily.The research indicates that the model can reflect the actual evolution process of the dynamic generation,cooperation and extinction of node enterprises,and the node enterprises of the supply chain network take advantage of the regional advantages to strengthen the cooperation within the region,which can save costs,improve the benefits of enterprises,and then achieve mutual benefit and win-win results.It is concretely embodied in the following aspects:Based on the law of universal gravitation,the size and far and near of positional value are applied to define the rules of position attraction between node enterprises and determine the local world of each newly added node.The node strength and node degree are adopted to jointly determine the priority connection level of new and old nodes,so as to overcome the one-sidedness of relying only on the priority connection of node degree value,and then construct the evolution model of complex weighted supply chain network local world based on location attraction.2.Research the static robustness of complex weighted supply chain network under different attack strategies and different network structures can optimize the network design and improve the network’s ability to withstand risks.The research indicates that,as for random attacks,the node enterprises in the supply chain should properly reserve capacity and redundant links;as for deliberate target attacks,the industry alliance of core suppliers should be established for risk defense.It is embodied in:A variety of different attack strategies on the network are studied and a statistics of the network transmission efficiency and other indicators is made under different network structures in order to analyze the robustness of the network.As for node attack strategy,node degree attack and compound attack have a larger destructive effect,but for the edge attack strategy,the double-point betweenness attack has a greater destructive effect.In addition,it is also proved that the robustness of the network can be improved by changing the evolution mechanism and the network structure.Therefore,it provides some research ideas for protecting a few important nodes and key edges in the network and improving the invulnerability of the network.3.Research the dynamic robustness of complex weighted supply chain network to cascading failure faults,and how to improve the load balancing ability and invulnerability of the network.The research indicates that the established complex supply chain network cascade failure model reasonably defined the node capacity,and it can timely reallocate the load of the overload nodes for emergency.In addition,increasing the redundancy load capacity and repair ability of node enterprises can improve the elastic adaptation of node enterprises,such as expanding chain retailers and multi regional logistics center,thus providing the theoretical guidance for the research on the emergency management of the supply chain network.It is embodied in:A new cascade failure model which can reflect the advantages of nodes features is proposed.It is a comprehensive load-capacity model combining with the nodes’ local and global information.As it considers the influence of neighbor node information on node load,it is more comprehensive than the model that measures the initial load of the node only by degree or betweenness.By adjusting the parameters in the load-capacity model and reasonably distributing the load of the failure nodes,the change in the invulnerability of the network is discussed.The experiment verifies the effectiveness of the model as well as the load reassignment method of the failure nodes,so as to provide some research ideas for better preventing the cascade failure of the network.4.The dynamic characteristics and immune strategies of risk propagation in complex weighted supply chain networks are studied to avoid and control the rapid spread of risks.The research indicates that the simulated risk of SIR(Susceptible-Infected-Recovered)model based on the spread of the disease,which is the supply and demand risk related to edge weight between enterprises in the supply chain network can achieve the target of suppressing risk propagation with the least proportion of immunity by virtue of targeted target immunity,that is,the key immunity of important node enterprises and critical supply and demand channels can prevent the risks from propagation by depending on these ways.In addition,the parameters of network structure are optimized,and the trade is carried out with enterprises which have strong comprehensive strength according to the priority connection probability,so that changing the network evolution mechanism and reasonably weighting the network can also effectively prevent risk diffusion.It is embodied in:First of all,the BA(Barabási-Albert)scale-free network model is improved and a complex weighted supply chain network model is established.Secondly,the risk propagation of supply chain network is simulated based on the classical SIR model,and then various types of immune strategies for node and edge in the network are proposed.It is found from simulation experiment that the effect of random immune strategy is better than that of the free-propagation method.Both the targeted immunity to nodes and edges are generally better than the random immunity under the same conditions.It is confirmed that the compound targeted immunity strategy proposed in this paper has achieved a better immune effect than that of most traditional target immunity.In addition,the risk propagation can also be suppressed by changing the network structural parameters and infectious capacity parameters,so the above works have a certain research value for evaluating immune strategy and controlling risk propagation.This paper constructs a complex supply chain network evolution model based on the theory of complex network local world,which reveals the formation and dynamic evolution mechanism of the network.It is found that the model can get higher average aggregation coefficient and shorter average path length which enables the node enterprises in the supply chain to achieve mutual benefit and win-win results around the core enterprises.The attack strategy based on nodes and edges will help to discover the important node enterprises and key supply relationship between enterprises in the supply chain network.It is found that compound attack and degree attack are more destructive to network nodes,while two-point betweeness attack is more destructive to edges.Therefore,protecting corresponding nodes and edges can improve the network’s ability to withstand emergencies.The research on the propagation dynamics of the supply chain risk can provide an effective path for the control of risk propagation in complex supply chain network through various immune strategies proposed in the paper.It is found that the compound target immune strategy has achieved good immune effect both on the nodes and on the edges.The load-capacity model and load balancing methods proposed in the paper can be used to control the cascading failure in the supply chain network.It is found that it is more reasonable for the failed node to reallocate load according to the real-time residual load proportional of the adjacent nodes,which can improve the dynamic robustness of network.The research also optimizes the network structure design by changing the network evolution mechanism and weighting the network.Thus,the structural robustness of the network is improved.