The Cascade Failure And Invulnerability Analysis Of Fresh Agricultural Products Supply Chain Network

With the increase of per capita income and the change of consumption concept,residents’ demand for fresh agricultural products is growing,and their expectations for quality and timeliness of delivery are getting higher and higher.The nodes in the supply chain of fresh agricultural products are disturbed by unexpected events such as snowstorm,geological disaster,cold chain technician’s operation error,holiday traffic jam,malicious road destruction,which will cause the network to fail to function normally,especially the shortest path flow occupied by key logistics distribution centers or transit intersections,which will cause other nodes to fail,eventually leading to the paralysis of the whole network and heavy losses.Therefore,understanding the topological characteristics of fresh agricultural products supply chain network,studying the cascading failure scenarios and invulnerability of fresh agricultural products supply chain network will help to reduce the damage of network operation function caused by sudden interference events,and enhance the ability of fresh agricultural products supply chain network to resist failure risk.Based on the theory of complex network cascade failure,this paper reveals the topological characteristics of the fresh agricultural product supply chain network through modeling and simulation,and discusses the invulnerability of the fresh agricultural product supply chain network cascade failure under different sudden disturbance events.The research content is as follows:(1)Analysis of the characteristics of fresh agricultural products supply chain network.Combined with the related knowledge of complex network theory,this paper abstracts the components of fresh agricultural products supply chain network as nodes and edges,expounds its operation function,and draws the composition diagram of fresh agricultural products supply chain network.The characteristics of fresh agricultural products supply chain network are analyzed from the aspects of fresh agricultural products loss,cooperation and long distribution path.The complexity of fresh agricultural products supply chain network is explored to provide conditions for the construction of fresh agricultural products supply chain network model.(2)Construction of supply chain network model of fresh agricultural products.Based on the growth rules and preferred connection mode of BA(Barabási Albert)scale-free network,this paper combines the composition and complex characteristics of fresh agricultural products supply chain network,takes loss risk measurement and distribution path as the node preferred connection indicators,simulates the situation that actual network members cancel the cooperative relationship or leave the network due to excessive loss risk and fewer distribution paths,and establishes a fresh agricultural products supply chain network model,and analyzes the topological characteristics.(3)Construction of cascading failure model of fresh agricultural products supply chain network.Based on the load capacity model,this paper studies the nonlinear relationship between node load and capacity,analyzes the cascading failure scenario of fresh agricultural products supply chain network under node failure,formulates the remaining capacity allocation principle,and establishes the cascading failure model of fresh agricultural products supply chain network.With the help of node failure condition and invulnerability measure,the rationality of the model is verified by theoretical derivation and simulation.(4)Simulation analysis of cascading failure and invulnerability of fresh agricultural products supply chain network.Taking the fresh agricultural products supply chain network of M enterprises in Beijing as the research object,this paper discusses its topological characteristics by using the relevant characteristic parameters of complex network theory,and selects attack strategy and invulnerability measure to simulate the invulnerability of the fresh agricultural products supply chain network of M enterprises in Beijing.The simulation results show that the fresh agricultural product supply chain network of Beijing M enterprise is less survivable when faced with node betweenness attacks than node random attacks and node degree attacks;appropriately adjusting the weight coefficients,capacity parameters and average cost utility can enhance the invulnerability of the fresh agricultural product supply chain network,and the optimization measures for the invulnerability of the network are formulated from two aspects: protecting the core nodes and improving the network structure.