| The global warming has brought severe challenges to the global sustainable development.Because of the significant correlation between the climates warming and the greenhouse gas emissions,to alleviate the problem of the global warming the first issue is regulate the CO2 in the atmosphere.Carbon emissions reduction has become a hot issue in the world.As a responsible developing country,China has also taken an active part in the international cooperation activities of the carbon emission reduction and put forward a series of carbon emission reduction targets.For the economic growth point of the carbon trading market,the Shaanxi Province as the first "low-carbon development" province research the important significance about the evolution mechanism of carbon dioxide emission on Shaanxi Province system construction and economic development at this stage.In this paper,the anthropogenic carbon emission in Shaanxi Province was studied systematically.Combined with the GIS analysis method,the grey relational analysis and the mathematical statistical model,researched the spatial distribution and industry distribution.Explored the interactive response relationship among the anthropogenic carbon emissions in Shaanxi Province,the level of city population,the energy structure of driving factors and built the carbon emissions driving mechanism theory frame.At the same time,improved the traditional grey GM(1,1)model,increase the prediction accuracy and predict the future carbon emissions trend in Shaanxi Province.Analyzed the different development situations of the emission reduction potential with the Kuznets curve,and put forward the "carbon emissions" control strategy from the decision,space and industry scale respectively.So the following conclusions can be achieved:(1)Combed the framework of the low carbon economy,the man-land relationship theory and the gray theory systematically.Set up the theoretical system for the anthropogenic carbon emission dynamics and the mechanism of emission reduction regulation in Shaanxi Province.The GIS method,the STIRPAT model,the grey prediction GM(1,1)model,the vector auto regression and the vector error correctiomodel constitute the methodology system of this paper.(2)In Shaanxi Province,with the IPCC "sub-departmental" method,divided the anthropogenic emission into six units and estimated the total anthropogenic sources carbon emissions from 1995 to 2015.The results show that the total carbon emissions from anthropogenic sources increased from 2052.88×104t to 27520.70×104t.The carbon emissions mainly come from the energy consumption,accounting for about 80%of the total emissions.In the energy consumption,due to the energy structure dominated by the coal consumption,the highest contribution is the industrial energy consumption,just about 60%of the total emissions.In the non-energy part,the industry process contributed about 20%of the total.From the emission trend of each source,straw combustion and waste treatment show the downward trend from 2012.Other emissions continue to grow,but their growth rates declined than before.Combined the carbon emissions measurement method it included the "division method",the"energy consumption method" and the "terminal energy consumption law".Comparing the three measurement results,analyzed the uncertain factors affecting the carbon inventory difference.The result shows that the energy statistics value,the carbon source and the non-energy consumption are the main effect of carbon inventory uncertainty.The "sub-departmental" method specified the input,the regional and industry carbon emission factors and taking into account the non-energy emissions problem.It could avoid the variables uncertainty of the list in a certain degree.(3)The evolution mechanism of the anthropogenic sources carbon emissions is analyzed from the special and the industry.In the spatial analysis of carbon emissions,the Moran index shows the cities with the spatial correlation of urban carbon efficiency are locate in H-H and H-L regions.The H-H area is mostly in the Guanzhong area,and the H-L is mostly in the Southern Shaanxi.Within the carbon emission factors,by the extended STIRPAT model to decompose the seven driving factors of influence coefficient of the total population,per capita GDP,carbon intensity,urbanization,energy structure,energy intensity and industrial structure.From the influence coefficient,the energy structure has the largest impact on the carbon emissions,the value is 0.7899,and then followed by the total population of the city(0.7752),the smallest impact is urbanization.From the driving direction of the carbon emission,the urbanization,the energy structure,the energy intensity and the industrial structure are negatively driven.The other driving factors are positive effects.In the spatial distribution of driving factors,based on the grey measurement,the correlation degree of per capita GDP is the highest which shows that the carbon emissions of Shaanxi Province mainly from the economic development.According to the correlation of the driving factors,the theoretical framework of dynamic mechanism of anthropogenic carbon emissions evolution in Shaanxi Province was constructed.In the analysis of the industry,based on thermal power,steel,and cement carbon emissions,it can be seen that the industrial energy consumption and industrial process are still the main target of energy saving and emission reduction in Shaanxi Province.In the process of industrial management,there is a long term co-integration relationship between the energy industry development,industrial pollution control and the carbon emissions.(4)With the improved GM(1,1)model,in the analysis of man-made carbon emission reduction potentials,designing the baseline scene,high carbon scene and low carbon scene,and predicted the carbon emissions from 2016 to 2040.In the high carbon scene,the anthropogenic carbon emissions in Shaanxi will reach the 34433.02×104t,and the baseline and low scene are 31898.23×104t and 30723.66×104t,respectively.High carbon scene carbon emissions did not appear inflection point.The baseline and low carbon scene have the inflection point in 2031 and 2030,respectively.Forecast the carbon emissions in Shaanxi Province to 2050,the carbon emissions maintain a long-time equilibrium with the economic development at the 30700×104t level.So,Shaanxi Province carbon emissions in different scene the potential of emission reduction are 3733.02×104t,1198.23×104t and 23.66×104t.(5)Based on the carbon emission control strategy of the decision scale,the spatial scale and the industry scale,it provides reference for energy saving and emission reduction for Shaanxi Province.From the perspective of the inter provincial,proposed the adjustments and high-tech industry development strategy for the second industry structure.According to the different regional and city spatial scale,constructed the carbon emission control framework in Guanzhong,Northern and Southern Shaanxi region.In the industry scale,put forward the "carbon emission reduction"strategy for the transportation industry,thermal power,cement and the steel industry.The main innovations in this paper are two aspects:At first,refined the anthropogenic carbon emissions path in Shaanxi Province and determined the uncertainty of carbon inventory.The second characterize the spatial pattern of carbon emissions and industry and built the foundation for the regulatory mechanism.In the future,we will continue to explore the influence factors of carbon emissions from the human activities,fully considering the impact of "smart city" on carbon emissions,and analyze the market response mechanism of "carbon reduction" and "carbon trade"systematically. |
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