| Since the industrial revolution,the global greenhouse gas concentration has been rising,which has accelerated the pace of global warming,increased the probability of extreme weather,and brought severe challenges to the sustainable development of the world.As a responsible country,China has made a solemn commitment to the world that the carbon emission intensity in 2020 will be 40%-45%lower than that in 2005.According to the Second National Communication on Climate Change,greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural sources account for 10.98%of the total emissions of China,becoming the second largest source,while carbon emissions from planting industry have the greatest impact on agricultural carbon emissions,so we should attach great importance to the role of carbon emissions from planting industry in greenhouse gas emissions.Shaanxi Province is an underdeveloped province in the west,and the planting economy plays an important role in the local economy.In this context,it is of great significance to analyze the spatio-temporal pattern of carbon emissions from planting industry and its driving factors in the Shaanxi Province,and to explore the relationship between carbon emissions from planting industry and economic growth on this basis.Based on this,this paper takes 107 counties(districts)of Shaanxi Province as the research unit,selects the relevant data of the planting industry from 2005 to 2017,first calculates the carbon emission of the planting industry by using the emission coefficient method,and analyzes the temporal change characteristics of the carbon emission of the planting industry in the Shaanxi Province;secondly,discusses the regional difference characteristics and spatial distribution characteristics of carbon emissions from the planting industry by using the methods of variation coefficient,gravity analysis,standard deviation ellipse,exploratory spatial analysis in the Shaanxi Province;then using Kaya identity equation and LMDI model to decompose the driving factors of carbon emissions from the planting industry in the Shaanxi Province;finally,building EKC model to verify the relationship between carbon emissions from the planting industry and economic development in the Shaanxi Province,and judge the stage and future development trend of carbon emissions from the planting industry in the Shaanxi Province,and finally put forward emission reduction suggestions in line with local conditions The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The carbon emission of planting industry shows an overall growth trend,but the growth rate is slowing down in the Shaanxi Province.From the perspective of carbon emission structure,the order from high to low is chemical fertilizer,agricultural diesel,agricultural irrigation,agricultural film,pesticide,ploughing and total power of agricultural machinery,among which chemical fertilizer has always been the largest carbon source of carbon emission in the Shaanxi Province.From the perspective of carbon emission intensity,although the carbon emission intensity of Shaanxi's planting industry continued to weaken after 2012,there is still a certain gap with the national emission reduction target.(2)The carbon emission of planting industry in all counties of Shaanxi Province has changed from rapid growth to slow growth or even decline,and the counties with high carbon emission are concentrated in the Central Shaanxi Province with better agricultural production conditions.The regional difference of carbon emission of planting industry in the Shaanxi Province is expanding,but the speed has begun to slow down.The carbon emission center of planting industry has been moving to the northeast,and the average annual moving distance shows a trend of decreasing first and then increasing.The spatial distribution pattern of carbon emission of planting industry is from northeast to southwest in the Shaanxi Province,and it is in the process of adjustment from polarization to dispersion,and the concentration level begins to weaken.(3)The carbon emission of the planting industry shows a positive spatial correlation in the Shaanxi Province,which has a strong clustering in spatial distribution,but the spatial clustering has declined in the research period.From the perspective of carbon emissions from various carbon sources,except for the failure of agricultural diesel to pass the significance test,the carbon emissions from other carbon sources have a strong spatial clustering:the spatial clustering of the carbon emissions from total power of agricultural machinery,agricultural plastic film,pesticide,effective irrigation area and ploughing have been enhanced,while the spatial clustering of carbon emissions from agricultural fertilizer has been decreased significantly.(4)The number of H-H cluster areas of total carbon emissions of planting industry decreased,and they were concentrated in the middle of Weibei dryland;the number of LL cluster areas increased,but the distribution location was relatively scattered,mainly distributed in the counties with less planting activities;the number of L-H and H-L cluster areas decreased,and the spatial heterogeneity decreased.(5)The main driving factor of the increase of carbon emission of planting industry is the agricultural economic development in the Shaanxi Province.The promotion effect of agricultural production structure on carbon emission of planting industry is relatively stable on the whole,and the agricultural production efficiency and agricultural labor scale on the whole restrain the carbon emission of planting industry.Because the increasing effect of each driving factor is far greater than the restraining effect,the carbon emission of planting industry will continue to increase for a period of time in the Shaanxi Province.(6)The relationship between the total carbon emission of the planting industry and the economic development of the planting industry is inverted U-shaped in the Shaanxi Province,which has the typical trend of EKC curve.The critical value of the turning point is 12,108 yuan per capita of the total output value of the planting industry.At present,the total output value of the planting industry per capita has exceeded the critical level in the Shaanxi Province,that is to say,with the increase of the total output value of the planting industry per capita,the total carbon emission of the planting industry will decrease.From the perspective of the relationship between the carbon emissions of various carbon sources and economic development,the relationship between the total power of agricultural machinery,agricultural chemical fertilizer,agricultural plastic film carbon emissions and the economic development of the planting industry is inverted U-shaped in the Shaanxi Province,with typical EKC curve trend characteristics;the relationship between the carbon emissions of agricultural diesel,pesticide and the economic development of the planting industry is linear and monotonous increasing;the equation model of the carbon emission of ploughing and the total output value of per capita planting industry has not passed the test,and the relationship between them is not significant. |
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