| In recent years,with the rapid development of the petrochemical industry,more and more attention should be paid to the safety of oil depots.The fire accident in oil reservoir area has the characteristics of great harm,wide coverage and serious consequence.In order to quickly eliminate and reduce the damage and expansion of the accident,the emergency response must be made timely.However,the historical data of fire accidents for oil-gas storage and transportation show that after the accident,emergency accidents caused by improper emergency often occur,for example,increased casualties,expanded accident situation,and increased environmental pollution.This confirms that because the evolution path of the accident is unclear,the evolution process and development trend are uncertain,the emergency decision makers cannot make correct decisions.That results the accident cannot be handled in a timely and effective manner,resulting in further deterioration of the accident.Therefore,according to the current state of the disaster accident,the evolution path and future development trend of fire accidents for oil-gas storage and transportation are reasonable analyzed and reasoned to determine the possible evolution path of the fire accidents for oil-gas storage and transportation and to build the fire accidents for oil-gas storage and transportation scenario evolution model is particularly important.This dissertation studies the scenario evolution process on fire accident for oil-gas storage and transportation emergency process which may.lead to secondary or secondary accidents from the perspective of scenario analysis.Through the analysis of the statistical characteristics of actual accident cases,17 kinds of basic scenarios that frequently occurring are summarized.And through the decomposition of the initial scenario in time and space,the spatiotemporal description of the scenario is given,and the corresponding time scenario tree and space scenario tree are constructed.On this basis,the possible paths of oil-gas storage and transportation fire accident scenario evolution are given by analyzing the evolution of oil-gas storage and transportation fire accidents scenarios.Based on the dynamic Bayesian network,a dynamic scenario network of oil-gas storage and transportation fire accidents is constructed.Considering the probability statistics of actual accident cases and expert scoring,using the dynamic Bayesian network joint probability formula to calculate the state probability of each scenario node,the key scenario node and its final scenario probability value are jointly determine.Thus,the key scenarios of oil-gas storage and transportation fire accidents are realized.Taking Dalian 7.16 oil depot explosion fire accident as an example,the scenario deduction process on fire accident for oil-gas storage and transportation was demonstrated.Then the results of the scenario deduction were analyzed to verify the rationality and feasibility of the proposed method.In order to further analyze the relationship between accident scenarios,system Dynamics is used to build a scenario evolution mode on fire accident for oil-gas storage and transportation,determine the boundaries of the system,and construct the accident scenario subsystem of combustion,explosion and leakage.And a general fire accident for oil-gas storage and transportation scenario evolution system model is constructed by analyzing the possible joint forces,mutual forces and driving coupling relationships among various scenarios in the subsystem.In order to verify the accuracy of the system model,Vensim software was used to simulate the oil-gas storage and transportation fire accident scenario model,and the accuracy of the model was verified by accident cases.Aiming at the decision analysis of the disposal measures of the emergency process of oil-gas storage and transportation fire accidents,the three-level response evaluation index system of oil-gas storage and transportation fire accidents is established by using the index decision model that based on the entropy weight method-TOPSIS method and according to the emergency evaluation principles of oil-gas storage and transportation fire accidents and the main tasks of accident emergency.Then the accuracy of the decision model is verified through examples.Based on the "scenario-response" method,this dissertation analyzes the scenario evolution path and scenario model on fire accident emergency process for oil-gas storage and transportation through the Dynamic Bayesian network and System Dynamics,and establishes the decision-making scheme index model..The results of this study provide a theoretical basis and guiding significance for revealing the scenarios evolution mechanism on fire accident for oil-gas storage and transportation,and for decision makers to make correct accident emergency decision plans timely and effectively. |
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