| The promulgation of the new Environmental Protection Law and the Overall Plan for the Reform of Ecological Civilization System has pointed out the direction and path for the reform of ecological civilization system.Faced with the still serious ecological environment problems,in order to meet the people’s growing demand for beautiful ecological environment and the need for high-quality economic development,the improvement of environmental regulation policy is becoming more and more important.The experience of developed countries shows that as a kind of command-controlled environmental regulation,the emission permit system plays an important role in the control of point source environmental pollution.Based on this,this paper analyses the mechanism and practical test of the emission reduction effect of the pollutant discharge permit system,simulates and analyses the pollutant discharge permit system after the reform,and puts forward the corresponding policy suggestions for the improvement of the pollutant discharge permit system.At present,the study of pollution emission reduction effects of environmental regulation has developed from direct verification of different objects or spatial scales to practical testing of single theory,such as reverse emission reduction effect extended from Porter hypothesis,pollution refuge effect extended from pollution refuge theory,etc.to joint testing of multiple theories,such as Porter hypothesis and pollution refuge hypothesis,from combining environmental regulation with pollution refuge hypothesis.As a whole,to study the pollution reduction analysis of different types of environmental regulation,and then to use quasi-experimental method to study the pollution reduction effect analysis of single environmental regulation.The practice evaluation of emission permit system in China is mostly carried out by field investigation and questionnaire survey,and the fragmentation phenomenon is serious,and the analysis of economic methods is less.The emission permit system stipulates the total amount of pollutants discharged from point sources and the discharge standards.Under the premise of maximizing the profits of enterprises,enterprises either carry out technological innovation to reduce pollutant emissions.Or reduce the production of products to achieve emission reduction,and in this case,enterprises for self-interest reasons often break through the limitation of the total amount of pollutant discharge,increase pollutant emissions,but also face huge fines from management departments.At the same time,the industry technology system stipulated by the sewage discharge permit system also provides direction and guidance for enterprise technological innovation or the adoption of advanced environmental protection technology.The emission permit system has dual regulations on the total amount of pollutants discharged and the standard of pollutants discharged by enterprises.As the basis of emission trading,it can exert influence on the behavior of micro-enterprises.Firstly,starting from the effect of environmental regulation on pollution reduction,this paper uses panel vector autoregression method to study the impact of command-controlled environmental regulation on environmental pollution and economic growth on the basis of panel data of provinces and municipalities from 1997 to 2015.The results show that command-controlled environmental regulation can achieve pollution reduction in a short time,but its impact on economic growth also shows a negative effect.China’s emission permit system has been practiced in various provinces and cities for many years.There are differences in the contents of management methods and the years of introduction.In addition to the differences in economic and social development among regions,this paper studies the pollution reduction effect of emission permit system under regional heterogeneity by using double difference model based on Provincial Industrial panel data in 1997-2015.It is found that the emission permit system at the national level can reduce the pollutant discharge per unit added value,but it has no significant impact on the total amount of pollutant discharge.There are regional differences in the emission reduction effects of the emission permit system.For example,the implementation of the emission permit system in the eastern and central regions can reduce the total amount of pollutant emissions and also reduce the pollutant emissions per unit added value,which can play a role in the emission reduction effect,while the effect in the western region is not significant.In order to further improve the emission permit system to enhance the intensity of command-controlled environmental regulation,and then achieve the goal of pollution reduction.The goal of the reform of emission permit system is to link up with other environmental management systems as the core of point source pollution control.Therefore,taking Shanghai as an example,this paper constructs the environmental social accounting matrix of Shanghai,and simulates the economic impact of total pollutant discharge control based on the emission permit system through the environmental CGE model.This paper takes chemical oxygen demand as an example,and divides it into three scenarios:historical inheritance and water environmental capacity(according to water environmental objectives).It is found that the stricter the total amount of pollutants is set in the emission permit system,the higher the degree of pollutant reduction,the larger the decline of the proportion of secondary industry,the greater the negative impact on economic growth,but the smaller the marginal impact on economic growth.Therefore,when formulating the total pollutant discharge target based on the emission permit system,we should fully consider its economic and social impact,and choose a more robust scheme,that is,the method of historical inheritance.Therefore,in order to improve the emission permit system,this paper argues that it is necessary to increase the relevant provisions of emission permit trading in the emission permit system to further improve flexibility;to improve public participation and enhance the management capacity of the emission permit system;to improve the technical system of the emission permit system and promote green technology innovation;and to improve the environmental management of the emission permit system and the total amount control system.The accounting of the total amount of pollutant discharge in the emission permit system should be steadily transited from historical accounting to environmental capacity accounting. |
