| The scale of road transportation of hazardous chemicals in China is increasing year by year,and road transportation accidents of hazardous chemicals occur frequently,resulting in a large number of casualties and property losses.The urban chemical agglomeration area is the main concentration area of urban hazardous chemicals,the starting point and the end point of urban hazardous chemicals road transportation,and it is the high consequence areas of hazardous materials road transportation accidents,and also the source of accident risk,which is related to safety of accumulation area and public along the transportation road directly.It is of great practical significance to carry out risk analysis methods and application research on hazardous materials road transportation in urban chemical agglomeration areas,so as to control and reduce the risk of road transportation in agglomeration area rational and orderly.The research result in the field of hazardous chemicals road transportation was reviewed through literature research method,and the law of hazardous chemicals road transport accidents was obtained by analyzing more than 2,000 accidents in recent years with statistical analysis method.The risk analysis model for hazardous materials road transport in urban chemical agglomeration area was established using comparative analysis,case study,system analysis,quantitative research and other research methods,and the risk management theory was proposed through inductive deduction.Finally,the hazardous chemicals road transportation risk analysis model and management theory and method for urban chemical agglomeration area researched in this thesis was verified by empirical analysis and interdisciplinary computer application methods.The following conclusions of risk analysis of hazardous chemicals road transportation in urban chemical agglomeration area were drawn.The ratio of the leakage caused by traffic accidents and non-traffic accidents is about 1:0.33.The individual risk criteria of hazardous chemicals road transportation in urban chemical agglomeration area is different from that of fixed hazardous industrial installations,which is determined by analyzing the influence of the area along the transport route caused by mobile hazardous industrial installations.The correction factors such as leakage caused by non-traffic accident,road type,road segment characteristic,meteorological condition,traffic condition,vehicle condition,driver and enterprise safety management should be taken into account systematically in the process of hazardous chemicals road transportation risk analysis model establishment.In the optimization of transportation route in urban chemical agglomeration area,the two-objective optimization based on potential loss of life(PLL)and transportation cost(TC)is more reasonable.The weight of PLL should not be less than 0.6 when PLL and TC are matched.Fixed hazardous installations such as hazardous chemical production and storage devices in chemical agglomeration areas pose a superimposed effect on road transportation risks,and the calculation method of risk cumulative load should be taken.The safety capacity of hazardous chemicals road transportation in urban chemical agglomeration area is closely related to chemical category.The total safety capacity is the combination of safety capacity of different types of hazardous chemicals transportation.The risk control measures and procedures for hazardous chemicals road transportation in chemical agglomeration areas should take many factors' characteristics into consideration,such as hazardous chemical type,transport scale,transport route,operational meteorological condition,special time period,loading and unloading workload,parking lot load,transportation time and so on.The following innovative achievements and insights during the research were gotten.An improved risk assessment model for hazardous chemicals road transportation which introduced eight correction factors such as leakage caused by non-traffic accident was established.The concept of safety capacity of hazardous chemicals road transportation in urban chemical accumulation area was put forward,and the safety capacity calculation models and methods of various hazardous chemicals such as liquefied petroleum gas,Class A flammable liquid,Class B flammable liquid and the overall transportation safety capacity of urban chemical agglomeration area were established.The theoretical and quantitative calculation model of the cumulative load of hazardous chemicals road transportation risk based on individual risk(RRL,The product of the individual risk of the route from the start to the end of the vehicle and the transport distance)was proposed.A two-objective transportation route optimization method based on potential loss of life(PLL)and transportation cost(TC)was established.The research was applied to a chemical agglomeration area of a city and the results showed that the risk of hazardous chemicals road transportation was reduced obviously.The techniques,procedures,methods and models proposed in this thesis are scientifically feasible,and the research results have good application and promotion value. |
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