Carbon Capture,Utilization And Storage Project Decision-Making Methods And Their Application

Climate change has become a major challenge facing the human race regarding the survival and development.Carbon Capture,Utilization and Storage(CCUS)technology is regared as a potential approach for mitigating climate change.To address climate change,CCUS technology globally needs to contribute 94 billion tons of cumulative emissions reduction from 2013 to 2050.As the largest CO2 emission contributor in the world,China should take responsibility to reduce its emissions,who also will be an improtant member to implement the CCUS project in the future.The safe and economical large-scale deployment of CCUS projects is the result and goal we pursue.The scientific decision-making is the way and support for the safe and economical large-scale development of CCUS project.Therefore,centering on the decision-making method and application of CCUS project in China,using the methods of information science,geography,Technical economics,finance and other disciplines,this dissertation carries out the following innovative work:(1)Based on the consideration of not storing CO2 on onshore unmineable coal seams and China's offshore storage basins,and the storage sites away from human aggregation sites,China's onshore CO2 storage basins and their storage capacity are re-evaluated.The results show that,limited to China's population distribution characteristics,CO2 storage basins in China are concentrated in the northwest and northeast regions,including 9 saline aquifer basins,8 natural gas fields,and 8 oil fields,with the storage capacity of 1383.4 billion tons,1.92 billion tons and 1.459 billion tons,respectively.(2)Based on the onshore CO2 storage basins and their storage capacity in China,the locations,emissions and capture scale of the latest 1,229 large-scale emission sources in various industries nationwide,the optimal economic path of China's overall CCUS project is planned.The planning results show that,if CO2 from high-concentration sources near Ordos,Junggar,Songliao and other oil fields is stored in these oil fields,22 profitable CCUS projects can be formed,which should be the priority for large-scale implementation of China's early CCUS projects.The economically sub-optimal CCUS projects are saline aquifer storage projects implemented by high-concentration sources near the saline aquifer basins.The average cost of storing 2,958 million tons of CO2 per year from 1,229 sources in China is 683.16 yuan/ton.(3)The uncertainties in CO2 capture,oilfield storage combined with enhanced oil recovery(CCS-EOR)project investment are identified.On this basis,the investment decision-making method suitable for China's CCS-EOR project is constructed.Taking the CCS-EOR project of Yanchang Petroleum Group's coal-to-methanol production line as a case study,it is found that the CCS-EOR project of Yanchang Petroleum Group should be implemented immediately in 2019,but not later than 2024,and the investment after 2024 is difficult to recover the cost.In addition,China's emission sources with residual lifetime of less than 11 years should abandon the investment in CCS-EOR project directly.In general,some of China's potential high-concentration emission source CCS-EOR projects have good economic feasibility.(4)The uncertainties in CO2 capture,oilfield storage combined with enhanced water recovery(CCS-EWR)project investment are identified.On this basis,the investment decision-making method suitable for China's CCS-EWR project is constructed.Taking the CCS-EWR project of Shenhua Group's direct coal-to-liquid production line as a case study,it is found that the current price of Certified Emission Reductions(CERs)in China is not enough to trigger the commercial investment of CCS-EWR projects.In addition,China's emission sources with residual lifetime of less than 14 years should abandon the investment in CCS-EWR project directly.Beside,the negative economic impact of EWR technology is difficult to eliminate.(5)A decision-making method for optimizing the energy source of CCUS project under uncertain operation environment is constructed to provide a scientific decision making tool for the optimal operation of China's CCUS projects.Based on the case study of China's high-concentration emission source,with capture and storage scale of 1 million tons per year,it is found that current CCUS project will obtain electricity through direct electricity purchase scheme at the initial stage,and it is likely to be adjusted to purchase electricity from the power grid at the later stage.Compared with the direct electricity purchase and power grid electricity purchase schemes implemented in the whole credit period,the optimal electricity purchase decision can increase the expected income by 16.27 million yuan and 1.62 million yuan,respectively.In addition,compared with direct electricity purchase scheme,flexible options decrease the CO2 emissions arising from the energy used for CO2 capture by 30.31-50.71%.