A General Equilibrium Model Of Global Value Chain And Global Carbon Chain And Its Applications

With the in-depth research into the mode and development of global production,investment and trade dominated by global value chain(GVC),the traditional trade statistics on total value of commodities can no longer objectively depict the true situation of international trade.The statistical method of value added in trade has become an important approach to re-understanding global trade imbalance,competitiveness of industry or enterprises,and formulating the “next generation” trade policies.The new concept of measuring gains from trade in terms of value added in trade gradually comes into being.Meanwhile,as the first global agreement on climate change,the Paris Agreement was reached and charted a new course for global carbon reduction.In contrast to the framework of the Kyoto Protocol,the Paris Agreement required all parties to make their best efforts through nationally determined contributions,which accelerated the progress towards the global agreement but also made the future division of responsibility remain unclear.In a sense,with the economic growth,especially in the post-economic crisis,the complicated interaction between economic and trade policies in each country and climate policies gains more and more attention in the world.As the value added in products forms the global value chain through networks of global production a nd trade,carbon emissions form the global carbon chain(GCC).It's certain that bot h production-based responsibility and consumption-based responsibility for carbon reduction are in the context of global economic integration,and the economic and trade policies or climate policies of one country not only affect domestic growth and carbon emissions,but also affect other countries.Thus,based on the principle of coordinating international economic policies,trade policies and cli mate policies,adopting the latest research results on GVC accounting,this paper clarifies and decomposes the inner relations between gains from trade and carbon emissions from multidimensional perspectives,and then quantifies the influence of policy change on GVC and GCC,which is of great theoretical and practical significance for coordinating emission reduction policies and trade policies in an open economy.Based on the above,this paper firstly discusses the development status of the mechanism of global climate governance,analyzes the realistic and theoretical conflicts between global climate governance and trade policies from the perspective of measuring gains from trade in terms of value-added in trade,and then further probes into the mechanism analysis of how policy change affect GVC and GCC.Secondly,by adopting the latest research results on GVC accounting,three indicators,namely carbon emission,added value and carbon intensity,are established from two perspectives: supply and demand,and forward and backward industrial linkages in export.The three indicators are applied to investigate the dynamic evolution characteristics of GVC and GCC at the global,national and sectoral levels from a multi-dimensional perspective.Thirdly,this paper establishes a new decomposition method for the contribution rate of intensity index,decomposin g the carbon intensities of global and individual sectors in the two perspectives mentioned above.Finally,a general equilibrium model is constructed to analyze changes in GVC and GCC under exogenous policy shocks.In line with the thoughts of “policy variable—mediate variable—target variable”,this paper uses the demand equation of two-stage CES function to measure the traditional trade effect,and establishes a decomposition framework of aggregate demand to define the trade effects of GVC and GCC as well as the relevant evaluation model.In addition,this paper takes Sino-US trade frictions and carbon tariffs imposed by the United States on China as representative policies to systematically evaluate their impacts on traditional trade effects,GVC and GCC trade effects.The results show that:(1)there are significant differences when different countries participate in GVC and GCC.For example,developing countries such as China,India and Russia are the major carbon emission exporters,with their portion o f carbon emissions as producers larger than that as consumers.Economic benefits outflow from the US,the EU and China,where the value added from the perspective of producers are larger than that from the perspective of consumers.However,countries with high carbon intensity,such as China and Russia,have significantly lowered carbon emissions both as producers and as consumers,with their carbon intensity as producers higher and higher than that as consumers;(2)according to the decomposition results,after entering the WTO China made significant negative contribution to the decline in global carbon intensity,with the negative contribution from the perspective of demand less than that from the perspective of supply.In contrast,the US and the EU have significantly contributed to the decline in global carbon intensity,but their contribution is not significant from the perspective of demand.In other non-metallic mining sectors worldwide,the EU,China and the US are the major contributors to the decline in carbon intensity in export via forward linkages.In the global electronic optical equipment manufacturing sector,the US,the EU and Japan have made significant positive contributions to the decline in carbon intensity in exports via backward linkages,while China and India have made significant negative contributions;(3)Carbon tariffs and trade frictions between China and the US will result in trade restriction effect and trade diversion effect in GVC and GCC.Due to Sino-US trade frictions,trading volumes decline and China's trade surplus with the US decreases.From the perspective of the trade effects of GVC and GCC,the value added in trade(carbon emissions)and trade in value added(carbon emissions)of China and the US,especially the latter,have not decreased as significantly as the trade volume,while more gains from trade are earned by other countries.Carbon tariffs cause the decline of China's exports to the US,including its value added in export(carbon emission)and its export in value added(carbon emission).In addition,carbon emissions from the perspective of demand in the US have increased with the increase of domestic demand.