Research On The Market Evolution And Guidance Of New Energy Vehicle Industry Based On Scenario

To promote the development of new energy vehicles industry is the inevitable choice of all countries in the world to cope with the challenge and pressure of the petroleum energy,serious environmental pollution,and the auto industry need of transformation and upgrading.In recent years,new energy vehicles industry get constant increase support,and technology research and development and market cultivation of the new energy automotive is accelerated in the whole country and many places.But,for now,the share of China's new energy vehicles in the car market is still very low.At the same time,R&D and industrialization of selection of the new energy vehicle in our country has more comparative advantage than the large traditional car system established in developed countries.Therefore,it's the strategic practice of significance to maximize the use of advantage of backwardness and take the lead in realizing the industrial transformation in the world.Applying the method of system and starting from the industrial complex cognitive,the evolutionary relationships of multiple main body behavior among government,enterprises and consumers,which lies in the new energy automobile industry development,are studied.First of all,the relative theory research and practice dynamic of industry development of new energy automotive at home and abroad are systemic reviewed and summarized.Emphatically from the perspective of the system science,especially the complex systems and complexity science,system complexity of industry development of new energy vehicles is analyzed in-depth.The evolution research framework for new energy vehicles market is put forward as a tool of complexity cognition based on the scenario building.Applying the basic principle of game theory and combining the interaction of demand and supply of new energy vehicles market,evolutionary game model of group strategy interaction between the new energy vehicles suppliers and consumers is built to reveal the internal evolution mechanism and dynamic law of new energy vehicles market.Thinking about the heterogeneity and adaptability features of the main body in the system and various scenarios of system evolution path,the action mechanism of market,technology and policy for the development of new energy vehicles industry is analyzed by the method of computational experiment when considering the interaction of enterprises,consumers and government.Building scenario model and do the analysis from three aspects of new energy vehicles consumption guide,sales incentives and technology input,the theoretical model is constructed.The experiment results reveal the evolution path of the new energy vehicles industry market and explore a reasonable strategies of government intervention,then the countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to promote the development of new energy vehicles industry according to the experimental results.The main conclusions are as follow:There are multiple complex paths in market evolution of new energy vehicles industry,which largely depends on the initial status and incentive relationship double population of supply and demand.Government and related industry sectors should adopt a series of co-movement measures with departments and industries to keep the consumers real benefits from the market cultivation of new energy vehicles.In terms of consumer guide,government subsidy policy can significantly increase the purchaser number,improve the social influence,and promote the market diffusion of the new energy vehicles.Even if the government subsidies canceled at last,the consumer proportion of choosing new energy vehicles will still maintain higher.In terms of sales incentives,market development of the new energy vehicles industry can be promoted preferably by government subsidy policy.When making sales target that the enterprises can get subsidies or not,the moderate principle should be adopted,instead of setting the sales target too high or too low.The model of dynamic subsidies adopted by the government will be superior to static model of maintain subsidies unchanged.In addition,market pattern change of new energy vehicles is the common result of carmakers' technology competition and buyers' choices.Different characteristics of system evolution are caused by difference scenarios which are the diversity evolutionary characteristics formed by manufacturers' technology input behavior and the consumers' purchasing behavior.Both price compensation and R&D compensation are good to market development of new energy vehicles,but the R&D compensation is more beneficial to energy consumption reduction and performance improvement for the whole vehicles market.