Research On Emergency Disaster Evacuation Policy And Evacuation Damage:

Since the the 21st century,various types of huge disasters have happened in the world frequently.Many huge disasters are often happened by two or more kinds of disasters.The frequent occurrence of multi-hazard has caused tremendous Loss to the life and property of the society.Especially as for the huge city like Tokyo which has such high-level disaster risk.At present,disaster research in various countries in the world is still dominated by single disasters.Although some experience has been gained,the research on multi-hazard is still at the starting stage.This research is based on the research of multi-hazard.It starts from qualitative and quantitative aspects,discusses the improvement of emergency policy and the application of multi-agent emergency disaster simulation of multi-hazard.In order to predict and identify the damage caused by multi-hazard.New methods and new ideas are gradually introduced into the qualitative and quantitative research of urban disaster prevention;Artificial intelligence simulation will be one of the key points.The qualitative policy research under multi-hazard can achieve the purpose of improving the efficiency through the improvement of the emergency policy.The quantitative research of artificial intelligence simulation can show the post-disaster situation more accurately in the research area.Therefore,this study has important theoretical value and research significance in enhancing the safety of the city and the safety of residents.This paper takes Tokyo’s Shin-koiwa as the research area.Shin-koiwa is located in the lowland of Tokyo.The area has two disaster risks,earthquake and heavy rain.Therefore with two analyse methods—qualitative research and quantitative analysis to research in the case of multi-hazard composed of earthquakes and heavy rains at the same time.Qualitative research is mainly based on historical documents and Statistical data of the past disasters,to find out the problems existing in the disaster prevention policy of Shin-koiwa and give the improve measures.The quantitative research takes the multi-agent simulation experiment of the computer as research method,takes the mathematical model as the experimental basis and takes the refuge evacuation road as the research object,Through the secondary development of GIS and Repast S application software programming to analyze the successful evacuation ratio in the studied area in the case of multi-hazard and construct the main influencing factors experiment of the evacuation efficiency of the evacuation roads at the same time,and then design the improved proposals to improve the overall disaster prevention level of Shin-koiwa.Then,put the research results to China,give two aspects of quantitative research and qualitative research to enhance our disaster prevention level in the case of composite disasters,and improve the safety level of Chinese city.The main research work of this paper is as following:(1)In the qualitative research,through the deep analysis and research on the status of the disaster prevention policy of Shin-koiwa under multi-hazard,it finds that the existing difficulties in the multi-hazard prevention policy of Shin-koiwa are mainly in five aspects:changing the idea of multi-hazard;changing the emergency plan of multi-hazard;emergency management of multi-hazard;emergency rescue and emergency information transfer.And then give the corresponding improvement of the policy.The main conclusions of this paper also provide a solid theoretical basis for the following qualitative research,and also provide reference and help in corresponding policies disaster management as for the other similar cities.(2)In the quantitative study,Using GIS to analyse the data of the present status of Shin-koiwa.Starting with the occurrence of earthquakes and heavy rain disasters simultaneous,by calculating the road’s blockage caused by the collapse of buildings and analyzing the influence of the road’s flooding caused by the heavy rain,and then superimpose the two situations.Without changing the location and the area of the evacuation site,the Repast S soft ware program which can let the multi-agents find the nearest refuge site using the shortest path themselves and then make us to know the problems of the current refuge site in a multi-hazard withing a visual display.(3)By constructing and designing the main influencing factor experiment of the roads’evacuation efficiency,we conclude that widening the current 4m-8m roads to more than 8m is the most effective way to improve evacuation efficiency for residents.At the same time,this paper designed a set of road planning and expanding proposal for Shin-koiwa under the case of multi-hazard,and statistics the improved rate in the efficiency of evacuation.(4)By suggestion on multi-hazard prevention in China.By summarizing the experiences in two acspects—qualitative and quantitative analyze of multi-hazard prevention in Shin-koiwa,we can find that China is weak in the idea and technology of multi-hazard prevention.Dalian of China also has multi-hazard risk.In this paper,we analyze disaster prevention capability of the area in Xianglujiao area of Dalian and give some suggestions by quantitative and qualitative aspects,and in order to to enhance Chinese cities in multi-hazard prevention capability.