| In recent years,China's wind power industry has developed rapidly and its installed capacity ranks first in the world.However,due to the volatility and market mechanism of wind power,the phenomenon of wind curtailment is becoming more and more serious and has been widely concerned.In this dissertation,the concept of non-grid-connected wind power is proposed,which refers to the electricity generated by wind power directly consumed by local users rather than supplied to the national grid.The proposal of non-grid-connected wind power can provide diversified paths for the consumption of wind power and improve the attention of the society on the utilization of non-grid-connected wind power.Since wind power generation is facing the problem of large-scale energy curtailment at present,a lot of wind power that is difficult to be connected to the grid or not planned to be connected to the grid will cause waste due to not being used reasonably,and energy storage can better make this part of power be consumed locally.With the gradual maturity of energy storage technology and the continuous development of energy storage industry,energy storage has become an indispensable link in the comsumption path of non-grid-connected wind power,forming a value chain of "power generation-energy storage-energy utilization",paying more attention to the coordinated development of multiple interest subjects,and realizing value increment,value innovation and value co-creation.From the perspective of value chain,this dissertation focuses on the optimization and evaluation problem of non-grid-connected wind power value chain and integrates optimization theory,the intelligent prediction and decision-making theory to establish a collaborative optimization and evaluation system for non-grid-connected wind power.Therefore,the power prediction in the energy generation step,the capacity configuration optimization in energy storage step and collaborative multi-agent optimization in energy consumption step are solved in order to provide a scientific and theoretical basis to the value chain management for the non-grid-connected wind power.(1)Since the wind curtailment rate is high in some provinces in China,the concept of non-grid-connected wind power is put forward.The current situation of non-grid-connected wind power industry and the existing problems are analyzed,and the non-grid-connected wind power value chain is built.Then,the key factors affecting the non-grid-connected wind power value chain are discussed,and the influence of information technology and virtual value chain on the coordinated development of the non-grid-connected wind power value chain is analyzed.(2)Aiming at the uncertainty of the output of wind power resources in the power generation step,a power prediction model for the the non-grid-connected wind power is proposed.Firstly,the original data is decomposed into high frequency signal and low frequency signal by ensemble empirical mode decomposition method.Then,for the high frequency signals,the deep learning algorithm is adopted to carry out an in-depth analysis of the automatic sparse encoder method,and the BP neural network algorithm is used to predict the low frequency signals.Then,each component is predicted and superimposed to obtain the predicted non-grid-connected wind power.Finally,the validity of the model is verified by a case analysis,and the original data are predicted by five methods respectively.The superiority of the proposed method is verified by comparing the predicted results.(3)Aiming at the rational allocation of energy storage resources in the energy storage step and promoting the absorption of non-grid-connected wind power,the optimal allocation model of hybrid electric energy storage capacity and the optimal model of heat storage device capacity are proposed respectively.In order to maximize the annual profit and minimize the curtailment rate as the objective function,the capacity allocation optimization model based on NSGA-II algorithm and VIKOR method is established under the constraints.A wind farm is taken as an example for analysis,and the optimal solution of the problem is determined.The effectiveness and applicability of the algorithm are proved.Second,considering the system cost,income of selling heat,operating costs and other factors,a heat storage capacity optimization model is built with the objective of profit maximization,using particle swarm optimization algorithm to solve it.(4)Aiming at the co-optimization problem of energy users and their reverse value subjects,a collaborative optimization model of multiple subjects in the non-grid-connected wind power value chain is constructed.Firstly,the types of users in the energy use step are sorted out,and the users are divided into electric load and thermal load,and the demand response model is built according to the the load types.Then,taking the maximization of economic benefit and environmental benefit as the optimization objective functions,the optimization model based on adaptive Tent chaotic search ant lion algorithm is established,taking into account the optimal allocation results of non-grid-connected power generation and energy storage.Finally,a case in northwestern China is studied and the coordinated operation strategy is obtained.Compared with non-cooperation scenario,the users can achieve more profits and improve the environmental benefits when cooperating with their reverse value subjects.(5)In order to evaluate the multi-agent cooperation and value-added effects in the non-grid-connected wind power value chain,an evaluation model is proposed.Firstly,an evaluation index system of the organizational synergy,business synergy,knowledge synergy,information technology competence,economic value,social value and environmental value is constructed.Then,in order to evaluate the multi-agent synergy and value-added effect,an evaluation model based on grey cumulative prospect theory is established.Finally,a case study is carried out to calculate the multi-agent synergy and value-added effect of the non-grid-connected wind power value chain.(6)In order to realize the information sharing and value co-creation of the non-grid wind power value chain,a collaborative cloud platform design scheme for the non-grid wind power value chain is proposed.Firstly,the necessity and feasibility of the establishment of collaborative cloud platform are deeply analyzed.Secondly,functional requirements of collaborative cloud platform are proposed from three aspects of information collaboration,energy collaboration and value collaboration.Then,the overall architecture and technical architecture of the collaborative cloud platform are designed.Finally,the method base design,model base design,database design,interface layer design and Hadoop cloud computing platform design of collaborative cloud platform are described,providing theoretical basis and decision support for further research and development of cloud platform.This dissertation enriches the theory of non-grid-connected wind power value chain collaborative management,and provides a feasible solution for promoting the consumption of wind curtailment energy. |
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