| The excessive use of fossil energy has brought about a series of problems,such as ecological environment and climate change et al.So,it is urgent to promote the transformation of energy type used in the world.As an important component of energy supply system,renewable energy drives energy supply to become more diversified,clean,green and low-carbon.In addition,the renewable energy industry,which covers a wide range of fields,can effectively drive the development of related industries,and increase employment significantly.That will have a positive influence on macroeconomic development,and to be a drive force achieving the transformation of economic development mode.Therefore,accelerating the development and utilization of renewable energy has become a universal consensus and concerted action of all countries in the world.Renewable energy is mainly used for power generation,but now the cost of renewable energy power generation is relatively high,and the competitive advantage is not obvious.Under the circumstances that the main position of fossil energy is difficult to replace in the short term,active support policies should be design for renewable energy power generation.In this paper,the support policies of power generation from renewable energy include special renewable policies and environmental policies.According to the forms of electricity price and subsidy mechanism,the special renewable policies mainly include Fit-in Tariff,Tendering and Renewable Portfolio Standard.The environmental policies are indirect policies which mainly refer to fossil energy environmental tax,such as carbon tax and sulfur tax.The innovation of this paper is that the support policies of power generation from renewable energy are studied under the framework of CGE model.Considering different types of power generation,we split the power generation sector in detail.Moreover,the emission module and feed-in tariff are added to the CGE model.The environmental and economic impacts of the FIT and the environmental tax on emission reductions,macro-economy,industry,energy structure,power composition and welfare are studied.The static CGE model is firstly established in order to explore the policy effects intuitively and clearly;then the dynamic CGE model is established in order to observe the time trend of environmental and economic variables.In addition,considering that the development of renewable energy is influenced by both policy and market factors,this paper also takes oil price fluctuation as the representative of market factors to study the impacts of oil price shocks on renewable energy and the role of policies when oil price shocks are not conducive to the development of renewable energy under the framework of CGE model for the first time.The specific empirical research work is as follows:In chapter 5,a static computable general equilibrium analysis of the Fit-in-Tariff policy and environmental tax is made to evaluate the impacts on emission reductions,energy structure,GDP,employment,and household utility.The results show that:(1)subsidy reduces the total emission of greenhouse gas and polluted gas,the policy of subsidy plus environmental tax can not only improve the atmospheric environmental welfare effectively,but also offset the impact of taxation on economic growth;(2)the emission of greenhouse gas and polluted gas in each industry decreases,the emission reduction of industrial sector is less than that of the agriculture and services sectors;(3)subsidy promotes the renewable energy power generation and optimizes the energy structure,and environmental tax policy can accelerate the process of energy structure optimization.In chapter 6,a dynamic computable general equilibrium analysis of the Fit-in-Tariff policy is made.Three subsidy scenarios are set to evaluate the impacts of Fit-in-Tariff on emission reductions,real GDP,employment,industries,electricity structure and household utility.Our results indicate that:(1)the Fit-in-Tariff will have positive effects on emission reductions,real GDP,and employment and that these benefits will increase over time;(2)such subsidies not only encourage the substitution of clean energy for traditional fossil energy,but also invite investment in renewable energy industries,ultimately benefiting all sectors;(3)a sustained higher subsidy rate can contribute to the abatement of greenhouse gas,and air pollutant emissions significantly,while also stimulating real GDP and employment in the early periods of the policy,yet it will not be conducive to growth over time due to the increasing tax burden.In chapter 7,a dynamic computable general equilibrium analysis of the fossil energy environmental tax policy is made.We consider the development goal for natural gas in China in the scenario setting,and evaluate the environmental and economic impacts of using sulfur and carbon tax policies to promote the power generation from renewable energy.The results show that:(1)the expansion of renewable energy can bring emission reductions and that the power sectors face significant decreases in emissions compared to other sectors;(2)the high economic growth is more conducive to the development of renewable energy because high economic growth results in higher energy demand,which creates more favorable conditions for renewable electricity adoption;(3)environmental tax reduce the price of renewable energy relative to that of fossil energy,which leads to latter being substituted by the former;(4)developing renewable energy can have positive impacts on China's real GDP and employment,but these impacts will be negative if environmental tax are implemented.In chapter 8,the oil price shocks are taken as the representative of market factors,then the scenarios of oil price fluctuation and the combination scenarios with renewable energy policy are set to analyze the impacts on renewable energy output and investment,macro-economy,industry output and environment.the results show that:(1)The output,investment and the rate of return of renewable energy will increase when the international oil price rises;the rise of international oil price will lead to the decline of China's real GDP,the rise of CPI and the fall of exports;the rise of international oil price will drive the development of the whole energy industry(except fuel power generation),but will have negative impacts on the non-energy industry(except construction industry);the rise of international oil price will restrain energy consumption,then reducing carbon emissions and improving the atmosphere environment.(2)The output,investment and the rate of return of renewable energy will decrease when the international oil price falls;the decline of international oil price will lead to the increase of China's real GDP,the fall of CPI and the rise of exports;the decline of international oil price will have negative impacts on the energy industry(except fuel power generation),and positive impacts on the non-energy industry(except construction industry);the decline of oil price is conducive to economic growth and thus stimulates energy consumption,which is not conducive to the improvement of atmospheric environment.(3)Adding renewable energy policy under the circumstance of the falling of international oil price can offset the negative impacts of falling oil price on renewable energy output and investment,and strengthen the positive impacts on GDP,and offset the negative impacts on CPI,and improve the negative impacts of falling oil price on the environment.Finally,we propose suggestions according to the current situation of renewable energy development in China and empirical research results.we should increase the additional standards of electricity price,subsidy and tax two-pronged approach to enhance the intensity of emission reduction in the short term.The shortage of subsidy funds means that we should change the subsidy approach gradually to the green certificate model,and find the subsidy standard based on market in the long term.The future electricity reform goals should include the rationalization of competition environment of power generation from fossil energy and renewable energy.The development and efficient utilization of wind power and solar power should be coordinated comprehensively while hydropower continues to be developed to solve the problem caused by abandoning wind and electricity.In summary,developing renewable energy is a key aspect of China's environmental governance.Hence,we propose that the government takes the development of renewable energy as an important national strategy and offers supports in funding,technology and policies. |
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