A Study Of Assessment On Technological Advances For New Electric Power Technologies And Its Applications To Smart Grid Planning

The aiming of assessment on technological advances is to evaluate the impacts of new technologies on planning and operation of smart grids under specific conditions.The smart grid is a complex system which involves many technological fields,products,services,and long-term construction,thus creating the challenging issues on quantitative assessment of innovative technological performance.In view of the fact that a great deal of new technologies has been widely deployed in power systems,it is difficult to quantitatively analyze the level of technological progress,judge the effcincy of a plan,consider the time effect of technology development,and describe the mathematical model for some uncertain factor under the special condition.As such,it is meaningful to investigate evaluation models that are appropriate for analyzing characteristics of technological advances.It is beneficial to provide the operational status of power systems in this study,and analyze the feasibility of the proposed smart grid plans,which enables it to better serve the technological evaluation in power systems.The following achievements have been obtained in this dissertation:(1)Considering the new electric power technologies in the context of smart grids,this paper presents an assessment model of technological progress for power systems based on production function theory in economic and management.Through analyzing the relationship between inputs and outputs for new electric power technology applied to power systems based on data envelopment analysis,a model is structured by Cobb-Douglas(C-D)production function.Based on the residual value concept,the technology variable can be seperated from the original model.The index indicating the contribution of technology application on economic benefits is designed to reflect the influence of technological process of power systems from the quantitative view(2)From the viewpoint that technological advances can enhance the efficiency of power systems,a novel efficiency assessment model for power systems is presented to reflect the capability of technical production and optimal allocation of resources based on stochastic frontier model(SFM).The theoretical modeling tool for this approach is the Cobb-Douglas production function with the stochastic frontier,and the evaluation model for technical efficiency of new electric power technologies is structured with the analysis of the relationship between inputs and outputs of power systems.Through the analysis of self-dual property of Cobb-Douglas production function and its cost function,the model for allocative efficiency of power systems is derived,which overcome the problem that it is difficult to obtain the price information of the inputs for conventional assessment of allocative efficiency(3)System dynamics method is applied in assessment on power system planning The dynamic evaluation model used to reflect the time effect of technological benefits is established.The proposed method takes the investment of the innovative technology as the starting point,and explores a system dynamics model to analyze the causal feedback relationship between new electric power technologies realized through investment and power grid functionality indices(4)This paper presents an evaluation model of technological adaptability for generation expansion planning of smart grids using robust optimization approach.The advantage of such methodology is to obtain the trade-off between optimality and robustness of the solution for the proposed optimization problem considering economic and environmental attributes.The application of the proposed method demonstrates the robustness of the solution to determine the optimal generation expansion plan immunized against any realization of the uncertain factors.Sensitivity analysis demonstrates the impact of the uncertainty budgets and weights on the robustness of the optimization model(5)To address the problem that some of the uncertainties may only have partial information,making it difficult to use a traditional optimization method to solve the planning problems.Considering the tractability of robust optimization mathematically,we present an evaluation model of technological adaptability for generation expansion planning of smart grids based on distributionally robust optimization.By adopting the duality technique and an affine rule,the proposed two-stage stochastic programming problem can be reformulated as a deterministic second-order cone optimization problem.Furthermore,an optimal and robust generation expansion can be obtained for the problem.