Robust Production Planning Model And Its Application In Management

As an effective tool for dealing with uncertain parameters,robust optimization method is widely used in management problems.This paper focuses on the application of robust optimization in production planning,and studies the robust production planning model of electricity supply network.There are still some problems in the domestic electricity industry,such as the great dependence on coal-fired electricity and excessive carbon emission.Making reliable and cost-controllable electricity production plans is a main challenge faced by government planners.Based on the mean-variance model,a robust electricity production planning model is established with the objective of minimizing the expected generation cost under certain risk level constraints,and considering the covariance matrix of generation cost under Infinite scenarios,the robust expression and algorithm of polynomial time solution are given.Based on China's "13th Five-Year Plan for Electricity Development" and actual electricity data,this paper calculates the leveled cost of energy(LCOE)and covariance matrix of seven electricity generation technologies in China.And the covariance matrix under the other two benchmark scenarios is obtained by qualitative analysis to carry out the computational experiments and analysis of robust electricity production planning.The experimental results show that the proposed algorithm can reduce the cost fluctuation risk and carbon emission cost,and effectively solve the problem of electricity production planning.It has a certain reference value for government planners to formulate electricity production planning.